MLB Predictions 2011

Last year, my MLB season picks weren't spot on. I'll dissect the agony and the ecstasy of those 2010 ML picks at the end of this post.

First, however, because hope springs eternal, and spring springs once a year, and baseball springs also, it's time to debut my MLB Predictions for 2011.

American League
East 

1. Boston Red Sox    Best Team in baseball.
2. New York Yankees  A fine, if somewhat aged, lineup. Their rotation is a problem. And doesn't this have to be the year that Mariano Rivera jumps the shark?
3. Tampa Bay Rays  Sporting a new look lineup and a bullpen by committee.
4. Toronto Blue Jays   Could score metric tons of runs, but the rotation is a little green.
5. Baltimore Orioles   The Orioles are the slow-pitch softball team of MLB. I predict a lot of 13-12 games.

Central

1. Minnesota Twins   A dependable, well-rounded team. It seems like the Twins always have a steady farmhand on call if injury strikes.
2. Chicago White Sox (wild card winner)  The opposite of the Twins, the White Sox are like the dynamite on board the Black Rock in Lost. There's a lot of volatility on this team.
3. Detroit Tigers  I like their rotation, but this team will always be one Miguel Cabrera bender away from falling out of contention.
4. Cleveland Indians  The Indians are rebuilding, and aren't doing a good job of it.
5. Kansas City Royals  There are some exciting young players on this team. I guess they're finally starting to get the hang of picking first in the draft.

West

1. Texas Rangers   A murderer's row of hitting, a desolation row of pitching.
2. California Angels in Anaheim  A pleasant blend of hitting, defending, pitching, and coaching.
3. Oakland Athletics   No pop in this lineup, and I'm not buying the rotation hype. Anderson and Gonzalez are legit; Cahill and Braden aren't.
4. Seattle Mariners  A lot of things need to break right for the Mariners to top .500.

National League
East

1. Atlanta Braves  I hate to admit it, but the NL East reign of the Braves has begun.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)   Pitching won't be a problem, but a combination of injuries, age, and unwillingness to take pitches has unhinged this lineup.
3. Florida Marlins  The Marlins are a few years away from winning the World Series. And then auctioning off their roster to the highest bidder.
4. New York Mets  The Mets have gotten to the point of paying their overpriced talent to go home. Yikes.
5. Washington Nationals  If Steven Strasburg can come back from Tommy John surgery, this team has the talent to contend in a few years. For now, their starting pitcher is Livan Hernandez.

Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers  Pitching and pop, with Prince hungry for a new contract.
2. Cincinnati Reds  We'll see how this young team deals with success. Also, Dusty Baker has already made Johnny Cueto's arm fall off, it won't be long before he does in Edinson Volquez.
3. St. Louis Cardinals  Tony La Russa could very well overmanage this team to playoff contention, but I see a lot of borderline big league players here.
4. Chicago Cubs  An intriguing ballclub, but the Cubs always find a way to suck.
   
5. Huston Astros  Built by GM Ed Wade. Nuff said.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates  Grading them on a curve for recent futility, the Pirates have a pretty snappy lineup. Their rotation is a nightmare, though.

West

1. Colorado Rockies  Much as I hate purple, this team has talent all over its roster. It's going to feast on the atrocious West.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers  Forget Divorce Court, the McCourts ought to be tried at the Hague for crimes against humanity for what they did to a promising Dodgers team.
3. San Francisco Giants  The Giants have a nice rotation and a rag-tag collection of position players that through some cosmic kismet got hot last postseason. It won't happen again.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks Love the lineup. The arms are mediocre.
5. San Diego Padres  22nd in the majors in runs scored, 28th in batting average. No more Adrian Gonzalez. Think they'll get to 90 wins again? I say they'll be lucky to break 70.

World Series
Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves in six.

Awards
I'm picking two gimmies for MVP, so I'm going with two dark horses for Cy Young.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
AL MVP: Carl Crawford, Red Sox
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Tigers
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds
Al Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero, Yankees
NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies
AL Manager of the Year: Tito Francona, Boston Red Sox


Recapping Last Year's Picks

There's a fella who writes for Sports Illustrated, Cliff Corcoran, who writes a column called "Awards Watch" about the MLB season awards. You know, MVP, Cy Young, that kind of thing. Here's something he says in his latest column:

"Awards Watch lists the top candidates in each league for the award at hand, basing the rankings on who is most likely to win, not necessarily who is most deserving, though the latter is identified in the text when the inevitable fission occurs.
In my final regular season column of 2010, I predicted the top three finishers in each of the six races."

He says, in effect, that he picked the MLB regular season awards pretty accurately AFTER THE MLB REGULAR SEASON HAD CONCLUDED. This is like saying, "I put some fish in a barrel, and I was able to shoot most of them." At season's end, there are only a handful of likely candidates for each award, and there is almost always a prohibitive favorite.

We don't pad our stats here at Crying Eagles, Noble Turkeys, Red Glares. We call our shots at the beginning of the game, before Cliff Lee gets traded to the Rangers. And we take our lumps when God blesses the Giants with a World Series title because God loves Gay Marriage.

So, without further ado, here is how my 2010 Baseball picks shook out last season. The actual results are in bold, my picks are in parentheses.

American League

East
If the Red Sox hadn't filled a wing of Massachusetts General Hospital with their injured players, I think my AL East picks would've been more respectable.

1. Tampa Bay Rays (3)
2. New York Yankees (1) -Won Wild Card-
3. Boston Red Sox (2, wild card)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (5)
5. Baltimore Orioles (4)

Central
I know Middle America pretty well. They love me there.

1. Minnesota Twins (1)
2. Chicago White Sox (2)
3. Detroit Tigers (3)
4. Cleveland Indians (5)
5. Kansas City Royals (4)

West
Yikes. No excuses. Well, one excuse: I fell for the new look Mariners with all their pitching and defense. They turned out to be the old look Mariners.

1. Texas Rangers (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (4)
3. California Angels in Anaheim (1)
4. Seattle Mariners (2)

National League
East
On target. I'm a B-2 bomber, and the NL East is why the military budget is astronomical.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (1)
2. Atlanta Braves (2, wild card) -won wild card-
3. Florida Marlins (3)
4. New York Mets (4)
5. Washington Nationals (5)

Central
The youthful Reds coalesced and ruined what would've been a pretty solid prognostication on my part.

1. Cincinnati Reds (3)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (1)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (2)
4. Houston Astros (5)
5. Chicago Cubs (4)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (6)

West
Picking the NL West was, and is, like picking which one of my dog's turd logs to scoop off the sidewalk first. They all stink. Yes, I'm saying that the Giants stink.

1. San Francisco Giants (3)
2. San Diego Padres (5)
3. Colorado Rockies (2)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (4)

World Series:
The Yankees and Phillies nearly made it, but instead we had to suffer through the Giants and Rangers.
Giants over Rangers (Yankees over Phillies)

Awards
Mostly respectable misses for me here, except for picking Don Wakamatsu to win Manager of the Year. He got fired instead.

But check out my Cy Young picks! Pretty sharp shooting for your boy.
 
NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey, Giants (Jason Heyward, Braves)
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (Wade Davis, Rays)
NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black, Padres (Bobby Cox, Braves)
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire, Twins (Don Wakamatsu, Mariners)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies (ding! ding! ding!)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners (ding! ding! ding!)
NL MVP: Joey Votto, Reds (Chase Utley, Phillies)
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox)

 

Dez Bryant can curse at off-duty police officers as much as he wants.

Look, the Dallas Cowboys are one of my favorite foils. I heap Texas-steer-sides of beefy condescension on that blue star and all who support it. I burn offerings to the sports gods to strike down every blue chip Dallas prospect with Fibromyalgia.
I'm no fan of the Dallas Cowboys. Nor am I a fan of Dez Bryant, who I've derided in this blog before.

So it is with a heavy heart that I bring you this news. Dez Bryant does not deserve recent criticism leveled at him by the press and Neon Deion Sanders.

Dez was shopping at some undoubtedly garish Dallas area mall this past weekend and got hit with a warning for criminal trespass. What actually happened at the mall is not entirely clear, but the consensus story so far is that Bryant was asked to pull up his low-riding pants by an off-duty police officer (or officers), and Bryant responded to the request with a profanity-laced tirade. One or both of these off-duty police officers slapped Bryant with the criminal trespass warning for "creating a scene."

Let's go over this in slow motion. Dez Bryant is sporting some saggy shorts. It's a misguided, lame, and antagonistic fashion statement. It's tacky, but not against the law. An OFF DUTY police officer tells Bryant to pull up his pants. Wait, let's pause the tape.

What the hell business is it of this off-duty police officer's how Bryant dresses? The officer is not acting in any official capacity ("off-duty"). There is no official capacity to this encounter; it's one citizen telling another citizen that he doesn't agree with a perfectly legal fashion statement.

We don't know how politely the officer asked Bryant to adjust his waistline, so we don't know how reasonable Bryant's tirade was. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that Bryant's outburst was understandable, because I'd assume:

1. That the off-duty police officer was white
2. That wearing one's pants low enough to reveal one's boxers is an urban (read: black) fashion trend
3. That the off-duty police officer was racist
4. That the off-duty police officer wanted to display authority over a wealthy young black man
5. That the off-duty police officer was abusing his power as a lawman and acting outside his capacity

In other words, the officer was fucking with Bryant, and Bryant didn't take kindly to that. This, in my scenario, led to:

1. The off-duty police officer feeling that his authority was challenged
2. The off-duty police officer re-establishing his authority by issuing a citation

And all of this culminated in a news sensation, feeding the white media's need to read stories about misbehaving young, wealthy black athletes. Because the white media are uncomfortable with wealthy young black men, and want to be reassured that rich, misbehaving black people can be put in their place.

Sound about right? It might not be. But it probably is. And, even if it isn't, it's probably close. Because there is no way that an off-duty police officer discreetly walked up to Bryant and initiated polite conversation about fashion.

Bryant could have responded differently, absolutely. But you know what? It takes two to "create a scene." And, in this case, centuries of racial discord.

Also, will someone please pass along this article about saggy shorts, written by my favorite Jazz Critic Stanley Crouch, to Dez?

****3/29 Update: ESPN is reporting that Dez Bryant is being sued for over $850,000 by two separate Jewelers who claim that Dez owes them money for jewelry, tickets to sporting events, and loans. These suits are unrelated to his altercation at the mall. I bring you this update to let you know that the Dallas Cowboys, and all their players, suck. *****

Why the Phillies big bats are Phailing

Two good articles on ESPN about why the Phillies lineup isn't as potent as it used to be. Here and here. If you're not planning on reading them, the bottom line is that teams are refusing to throw fastballs at the Phightens. And since the Phillies are undisciplined hitters, they swing at whatever junk saunters plateward. The results are strikeouts and dribblers.

Ryan Howard is the Phillie who sees the fewest fastballs- only about 53% of the pitches he gets are fastballs. That's astonishing when you consider that the fastball is the most common pitch in baseball (I don't have a calculator in front of me, but I'd guess that an average players sees about 80-85% mustard). Ryan should really think about bunting down the unguarded third base line more often.

It's unclear how the Phillies are going to adapt to a league adapting to them. I can't see J-Roll or the Flyin Hawaiian suddenly learning patience at the dish. Utley is a smart hitter, but he's already battling injuries. And forget about Dominic Brown bringing an offensive spark. That guy was sent home from winter ball for his batting impotence, and he has been equally sucktastic in spring training- breaking an 0 for 16 hitless streak with a swing that ended up breaking his hand. Jeepers.

I think the only hope might be that the Phillies can swap Joe Blanton for a patient, every day bat. Preferably one who can hit from the right side. Here are the players I'd target in a trade:

Nick Swisher, Yankees: He can take over as an every day right fielder. Or left fielder. He's not a top-flight player, but he's proven to be patient at the plate, and has some pop. The Yankees could really use some pitching help, as well.

Chone Figgins, Mariners: He's overpaid and getting long in the tooth, but he'd be the best top-of-the-lineup option on the Phillies roster. He can steal AND draw a walk. The Phils could plug him into the outfield or deal Placido and let Chone handle the hot corner.

Daric Barton, Athletics: This is a little bit of a stretch. I'm not sure the A's would want to trade him, and I'm not sure he can play the outfield. He might be able to play third base (he played ONE game there in 2008). But he's just what the Phillies need offensively: check out this quote from his player profile at ESPN: "Statistically, nobody chased out of the strike zone less than Barton last year." Yes, he'd be another lefthanded bat, but he actually hits lefties better than righties.