Let's flash back to July 2010. The floundering Phillies were looking to nab Roy Oswalt instead of Dan Haren, and I was not in favor of this. Here was one of my concerns about Oswalt:
"Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business."
Oswalt had a pretty good stint with the Phillies in 2010, and I had egg on my face. But it's 2011 now, 5 days from the end of the world, and it seems like the good people of Earth should trust my prophesy over what they hear on Family Radio. Why? Because my apocalyptic vision is coming to pass!
Back spasms chased Oswalt from a game on April 15th, and he hasn't been the same since. His velocity is down considerably, and everyone, from NL scouts to Carlos Ruiz, note that Oswalt's pitches lack movement. That is an ill portent for Oswalt's start in St. Louis tomorrow now that he's been activated from the DL.
I'm not saying that Oswalt is going to turn into a pumpkin. But we're paying him like a prince, and I don't think we can expect royal production from Roy anymore. I didn't read anything about him getting cortisone injected during this trip to the DL, but the more cortisone he gets pumped into his back, the worse the long term prognosis is for his vertebral column. Repeated cortisone injections help reduce inflammation, but they can weaken joints, cartilage, tendons, and ligaments. This makes re-injury very likely. What I said in 2010 holds even more truth today-the end of days is nigh for Oswalt's back.
I hope that he can recover enough to pitch well this season. He's gritted and gutted and ground out decent appearances so far. But I won't be shocked if he gets lit up tomorrow. And I will pray nightly both that the world doesn't end on the 21st, and that we don't sign Oswalt to a crippling, long term deal.
By the way, here's a comparison of Oswalt's and Dan Haren's numbers this year. Keep in mind that Haren pitches in the American League, and doesn't get a gimme out when the pitcher walks to the dish.
Haren:4 wins, 2 losses, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.93 ERA. Oswalt: 3 Wins, 1 loss, 21 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA.
Oswalt is good. Haren is tremendous. Haren has 2 years left on his contract at a somewhat reasonable price. And also has a structurally sound back. We could have had Haren for the same deal we made for Oswalt. I will never understand why the Phillies passed him up.
Last year, my MLB season picks weren't spot on. I'll dissect the agony and the ecstasy of those 2010 ML picks at the end of this post.
First, however, because hope springs eternal, and spring springs once a year, and baseball springs also, it's time to debut my MLB Predictions for 2011.
American League East
Boston Red Sox Best Team in baseball.
New York Yankees A fine, if somewhat aged, lineup. Their rotation is a problem. And doesn't this have to be the year that Mariano Rivera jumps the shark?
Tampa Bay Rays Sporting a new look lineup and a bullpen by committee.
Toronto Blue Jays Could score metric tons of runs, but the rotation is a little green.
Baltimore Orioles The Orioles are the slow-pitch softball team of MLB. I predict a lot of 13-12 games.
Central
Minnesota Twins A dependable, well-rounded team.It seems like the Twins always have a steady farmhand on call if injury strikes.
Chicago White Sox (wild card winner) The opposite of the Twins, the White Sox are like the dynamite on board the Black Rock in Lost. There's a lot of volatility on this team.
Detroit Tigers I like their rotation, but this team will always be one Miguel Cabrera bender away from falling out of contention.
Cleveland Indians The Indians are rebuilding, and aren't doing a good job of it.
Kansas City Royals There are some exciting young players on this team. I guess they're finally starting to get the hang of picking first in the draft.
West
Texas Rangers A murderer's row of hitting, a desolation row of pitching.
California Angels in Anaheim A pleasant blend of hitting, defending, pitching, and coaching.
Oakland Athletics No pop in this lineup, and I'm not buying the rotation hype. Anderson and Gonzalez are legit; Cahill and Braden aren't.
Seattle Mariners A lot of things need to break right for the Mariners to top .500.
National League East
Atlanta Braves I hate to admit it, but the NL East reign of the Braves has begun.
Philadelphia Phillies (wild card) Pitching won't be a problem, but a combination of injuries, age, and unwillingness to take pitches has unhinged this lineup.
Florida Marlins The Marlins are a few years away from winning the World Series. And then auctioning off their roster to the highest bidder.
New York Mets The Mets have gotten to the point of paying their overpriced talent to go home. Yikes.
Washington Nationals If Steven Strasburg can come back from Tommy John surgery, this team has the talent to contend in a few years. For now, their starting pitcher is Livan Hernandez.
Central
Milwaukee Brewers Pitching and pop, with Prince hungry for a new contract.
Cincinnati Reds We'll see how this young team deals with success. Also, Dusty Baker has already made Johnny Cueto's arm fall off, it won't be long before he does in Edinson Volquez.
St. Louis Cardinals Tony La Russa could very well overmanage this team to playoff contention, but I see a lot of borderline big league players here.
Chicago Cubs An intriguing ballclub, but the Cubs always find a way to suck.
Huston Astros Built by GM Ed Wade. Nuff said.
Pittsburgh Pirates Grading them on a curve for recent futility, the Pirates have a pretty snappy lineup. Their rotation is a nightmare, though.
West
Colorado Rockies Much as I hate purple, this team has talent all over its roster. It's going to feast on the atrocious West.
Los Angeles Dodgers Forget Divorce Court, the McCourts ought to be tried at the Hague for crimes against humanity for what they did to a promising Dodgers team.
San Francisco Giants The Giants have a nice rotation and a rag-tag collection of position players that through some cosmic kismet got hot last postseason. It won't happen again.
Arizona Diamondbacks Love the lineup. The arms are mediocre.
San Diego Padres 22nd in the majors in runs scored, 28th in batting average. No more Adrian Gonzalez. Think they'll get to 90 wins again? I say they'll be lucky to break 70.
World Series
Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves in six.
Awards I'm picking two gimmies for MVP, so I'm going with two dark horses for Cy Young.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals AL MVP: Carl Crawford, Red Sox AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Tigers NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds Al Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero, Yankees NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies AL Manager of the Year: Tito Francona, Boston Red Sox
Recapping Last Year's Picks
There's a fella who writes for Sports Illustrated, Cliff Corcoran, who writes a column called "Awards Watch" about the MLB season awards. You know, MVP, Cy Young, that kind of thing. Here's something he says in his latest column:
"Awards Watch lists the top candidates in each league for the award at hand, basing the rankings on who is most likely to win, not necessarily who is most deserving, though the latter is identified in the text when the inevitable fission occurs. In my final regular season column of 2010, I predicted the top three finishers in each of the six races."
He says, in effect, that he picked the MLB regular season awards pretty accurately AFTER THE MLB REGULAR SEASON HAD CONCLUDED. This is like saying, "I put some fish in a barrel, and I was able to shoot most of them." At season's end, there are only a handful of likely candidates for each award, and there is almost always a prohibitive favorite.
We don't pad our stats here at Crying Eagles, Noble Turkeys, Red Glares. We call our shots at the beginning of the game, before Cliff Lee gets traded to the Rangers. And we take our lumps when God blesses the Giants with a World Series title because God loves Gay Marriage.
So, without further ado, here is how my 2010 Baseball picks shook out last season. The actual results are in bold, my picks are in parentheses.
American League
East If the Red Sox hadn't filled a wing of Massachusetts General Hospital with their injured players, I think my AL East picks would've been more respectable.
Tampa Bay Rays (3)
New York Yankees (1) -Won Wild Card-
Boston Red Sox (2, wild card)
Toronto Blue Jays (5)
Baltimore Orioles (4)
Central I know Middle America pretty well. They love me there.
Minnesota Twins (1)
Chicago White Sox (2)
Detroit Tigers (3)
Cleveland Indians (5)
Kansas City Royals (4)
West Yikes. No excuses. Well, one excuse: I fell for the new look Mariners with all their pitching and defense. They turned out to be the old look Mariners.
Texas Rangers (3)
Oakland Athletics (4)
California Angels in Anaheim (1)
Seattle Mariners (2)
National League East On target. I'm a B-2 bomber, and the NL East is why the military budget is astronomical.
Philadelphia Phillies (1)
Atlanta Braves (2, wild card) -won wild card-
Florida Marlins (3)
New York Mets (4)
Washington Nationals (5)
Central The youthful Reds coalesced and ruined what would've been a pretty solid prognostication on my part.
Cincinnati Reds (3)
St. Louis Cardinals (1)
Milwaukee Brewers (2)
Houston Astros (5)
Chicago Cubs (4)
Pittsburgh Pirates (6)
West Picking the NL West was, and is, like picking which one of my dog's turd logs to scoop off the sidewalk first. They all stink. Yes, I'm saying that the Giants stink.
San Francisco Giants (3)
San Diego Padres (5)
Colorado Rockies (2)
Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
Arizona Diamondbacks (4)
World Series: The Yankees and Phillies nearly made it, but instead we had to suffer through the Giants and Rangers.
Giants over Rangers (Yankees over Phillies)
Awards Mostly respectable misses for me here, except for picking Don Wakamatsu to win Manager of the Year. He got fired instead.
But check out my Cy Young picks! Pretty sharp shooting for your boy. NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey, Giants (Jason Heyward, Braves) AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (Wade Davis, Rays) NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black, Padres (Bobby Cox, Braves) AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire, Twins (Don Wakamatsu, Mariners) NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies (ding! ding! ding!) AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners (ding! ding! ding!) NL MVP: Joey Votto, Reds (Chase Utley, Phillies) AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox)
Say hello to Mr. Cy Young 2010, because Roy Halladay just won his 20th game. Halladay's 20 wins are best in the NL, his 213 strikeouts are also tops, his 2.53 ERA is third, and he has walked a mere 30 batters. His closest competition in the Cy Young race is Adam Wainwright, but I think Halladay's wins, paucity of walks, and strikeout total will put him over the top. With two starts- at most- left in the season, I think it's safe to say that Halladay is going to win the prize.
Let's just hope he has something left for the playoffs.
This blog is coming to you live from Nana's house, from a computer that seems to be running a vintage '98 edition of internet explorer. Nana is partying down at the senior center, so I thought I'd throw out a quick blog update.
Roy Oswalt has indeed been traded to the Phillies. It's not as doom and gloom as I thought it would be, as Oswalt dropped his demand that the Phillies pick up his 2012 opion and Houston is paying $11 million of his salary for this year and next.
Though I still have many of the same concerns about Oswalt as I did in my last post, getting Oswalt for this year and next for $12 million represents good value for the Phillies. As long as Oswalt stays healthy, he'll be well worth that amount. The Phillies gave up JA Happ and some not-sure-thing prospects, and while losing Happ at his value-priced salary is a bit of a bummer, Oswalt is clearly the better pitcher, Keith Law has this to say about Happ:
"Happ is a fifth-starter type with good command and deception but fringy stuff without a real knockout pitch. He's a particularly bad fit for Houston's ballpark as a left-handed fly ball pitcher who has had some trouble with right-handed hitters. He's also coming off a forearm strain that has ruined his 2010 season. Other than that, he's everything you could ask for in a pitcher."
I pretty much echo those sentiments. I think Happ is a tough-minded pitcher who works very hard, but he's limited by his stuff. He would have to get by on guts and guile to become an elite pitcher, and that happens only rarely in the major leagues.
The Phillies are not in any shape to win it all this year, injuries and a world series hangover pretty much ensured that. But with Oswalt and the lineup waking up a bit, the Phillies do have the talent to challenge for a playoff spot. Next season looks bright as well, though I'd like the long term outlook a whole lot more if they'd have traded the same players for Dan Haren! Damn it!
By the way, Ed Wade has done his best work for the Phillies as GM of the Astros.
In horse racing news, the Haskell Stakes is this weekend. It's a tough field without any real longshots. Here are my quick picks:
Ice Box
First Dude
Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
Uptowncharleybrown
Super Saver
Afleet Again
Our Dark Knight
I just recalled that I never wrote about how I did in the Belmont, so I'll recap those results when I do the Haskell finishes.
If you look back at my critique of the Phils' offseason moves, you can see that I've proven to know more than Phillies management when it comes to assembling a baseball team. I'll return to this subject in more detail in a future post, but here's a quick review of my knowing-better:
The Phillies should have gone after Adrian Beltre instead of Placido Polanco.
The Phillies should have kept Cliff Lee.
The Phillies paid Ryan Howard more money than he's worth and more than he'd probably fetch on the open market.
Also, here are some things I would have written had I started this blog only a few months earlier:
If the Phillies were going to make an ill-advised trade of Cliff Lee, they should have shopped him around and gotten more for him (You may think the trade was Roy Halladay for Cliff Lee, but it wasn't: The Phillies traded minor leaguers Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d'Arnaud to Toronto for Roy Halladay. They then traded Cliff Lee to the Mariners for some minor league scrubs who you will never see at Citizens Bank Park- Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Tyson Gillies.)
The Phillies spent too much on, and gave too many years to Raul Ibanez.
The Phillies should have matched the Astros' paltry one year offer to Brett Myers.
I'm not saying that the Phillies would win the World Series this year had they followed my advice, but I will say that the team would be in better shape right now and for years to come. Thus, I know more about assembling a good baseball team than Phillies management. The blunders by Phillies brass have had a trickle-down effect this season, and will for seasons to come.
Let's take the Polanco example. Polanco may be falling apart, and they've already invested in him for the next two years. Meanwhile, Beltre is batting .332 with 16 home runs with 63 RBI, and is slugging .547 (Polanco is hitting a respectable .316 but only has 6 jacks). Beltre is 4th in the league in batting average, 6th in hits, 7th in OPS, and has as many homers as A-Rod. And here's a trickle-down effect you won't find on the stat sheet: With Beltre on the Phillies, Shane Victorino would be batting 2nd, where he could go back to his comfort zone of slap hitting and stealing bases. Shane wouldn't be swinging for the fences as he thinks he needs to do now, and he'd probably be hitting closer to his career average of .280.
More trickle down: Raul Ibanez has been a classy and consistent baseball player throughout his career. But he is now 38 years old and you have to wonder how much chaw is left in his cheek. His current hot streak aside, he has been miserable at the plate this season and for the latter half of last season (he hit 12 home runs post-all star break 2009, but his batting average was .232). We're looking at an aging leftfielder who swings a declining left-handed bat in a left-handed lineup, and who plays a slow left field. The Phillies are on the books for 11.5 million next season for Raul, and even if they could find a sucker to take him in a trade, Raul has a full no-trade clause. The Phillies are stuck with Raul this year and next, and he's eating up payroll the Phillies could use on a better quality player (or players!).
More trickle down: Think the Phillies could use Brett Myers' 3.24 ERA in their starting rotation? Might his 6.68 strikeouts per nine innings be worth 3.1 million dollars? The Phillies didn't think so, but former Phillies GM and current Astros GM Ed Wade did. And, in case you don't remember this, Ed Wade is a moron. What does that say about current Philies management? The Phils wouldn't need to look for starting pitching right now if they'd have re-signed Brett Myers. They could focus their resources to other team needs.
But here's the trickiest trickle: After parting with Cliff Lee for nothing, and refusing to spare some chump change for Myers, the Phillies are now desperately searching for starting pitching. They halfheartedly tried to get Cliff Lee back, but his price had gone up (Seattle flipped him to Texas for more than they gave up in the Phils trade) and it's doubtful Phillies brass could have stood the embarrassment of admitting they should have kept Lee when all of Philadelphia had condemned them for letting him go in the first place.
After all this trickling, the Phillies are in a tight spot. Their playoff hopes are slim, and their world series chances are nil. Still, they seem to want to salvage this season (and be competitive in next season) by acquiring a starting pitcher that they wouldn't need if they listened to me (and all of Philadelphia).
To fill their pitching need, the Phillies braintrust zeroed in on two targets, one good (Dan Haren) and one that will only cause more trickling sadness (Roy Oswalt).
The good one got dealt today to a team in red and white, but it wasn't the Phillies.
No, The California Angels in Anaheim picked up Dan for a big bucket of nothing. According to Christopher Harris of ESPN, the prospects the Angels gave up for Haren "are not expected to be elite players," and the only major leaguer they included in the deal is "a lucky win artist." Keith Law calls said major league player "a mediocre, back-end starter"and the minor league prospects "three bodies." Are you telling me the Phillies couldn't have tried harder to get one of the top major league pitchers, a top-of-the-rotation-talent, a player who has 3 1/2 years left on his contract at a reasonable price (he'll make less than Ibanez this year, and slightly more thereafter), who is only 29 years old, who would have made the Phillies rotation dominant... and they didn't? What the hell, Phillies??? YOU SHOULD HAVE NABBED DAN HAREN, YOU IDIOTS!
**** Note, just after I wrote this, Dan Haren was smote by a line drive while pitching for the Angels and had to leave the game after pitching 4 2/3 innings and striking out 8(!) batters. That ball was my divine wrath, but I must say I wish it hit one of the bumbling fools who make decisions for the Philiies, instead.****
The Phillies will, sadly, focus their efforts on trading for Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is a good pitcher, don't get me wrong. But he isn't the answer for the Phillies, especially not like Haren could have been. Oswalt's ERA and strikeout rate are very good, but they are trending down from the elite level they peaked at from 2001-2006. He is not currently Dan Haren level, but Roy Oswalt is a good pitcher. The thing is, he isn't a good fit for the Phillies. Why? I present the trickling of Roy Oswalt, which will settle upon the Philadelphia Phillies if they trade for him-
Roy Oswalt does not want to play in Philadelphia. He is an confirmed country boy and wants to live near his home in Weir, Mississippi. Oswalt has admitted that he'd rather be on one of his ranches than traveling from town to town with his current baseball team, which makes me question his dedication to baseball. If Oswalt is traded to Philadelphia, he'd be even farther from his coveted country real estate, and you have to wonder if living in a big city is going to affect Oswalt's already compromised focus. Unfocused pitchers ruin games.
Roy has played on a lousy Astros team for too long, and he is habituated to losing. Losing attitudes are contagious.
Roy demands that the Phillies pick up his 2012 option for $16 million. This, along with his $16 million pricetag for 2011 will further hamstring the Phillies payroll and make the team less competitive.
Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business
The Bleacher Report has a nice article about why the Phillies are better off keeping JA Happ and not trading for Oswalt; The Phillies have much more payroll flexibility if they keep JA Happ.
Dear Phillies, heed my call. Do not go after Oswalt. And appoint me GM before it's too late. Sheesh. How could you blow landing Dan Haren?!
A great article from NESN detailing how the Phillies extension of Ryan Howard has effectively priced most teams out of the market for Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder.
Hidden in the story is the tale of Ryan Howard's WAR, which is like his VORP, which is a nerd statistic that calculates a baseball player's value to his team. WAR stands for "wins above replacement," meaning that player X will win your team this many more games than an average player off the streets. WAR is a complicated formula, and I couldn't calculate it myself, but it supposedly accounts for every variable you can think of- like park size, lineup strength, chaw preference- and spits out how much of a difference-maker the player is in all phases of the game combined. It is a single statistic that tells you how good a player you have.
The thing to keep in mind about WAR is that it is a complete snapshot of how productive a player has been within a certain period of time. It can vary from year to year just like any statistic. If a player goes into a prolonged slump or misses half a season with injury, it will affect their WAR. So, if a player has an anomalous season, for instance if they take horse steroids or they break their pelvis, their WAR may fluctuate wildly from the year before.
That said, if players are performing at a level consistent with their previous season, their WAR can make for some sound comparisons. This is where Ryan Howard, he of the $125 million contract, is exposed as not being worth that astronomical amount of cash. Gives some credence to the argument I posed in my last post.
According to the WAR stat, Ryan Howard wins his team fewer games than two players having normal (for them) seasons: Fielder and Gonzalez. Uh oh. But the WAR express doesn't stop there. Ryan Howard also had a lower WAR last season than:
Albert Pujols- as expected, because Pujols is a better player
Joe Mauer- this means that Howard should earn less than Mauer, right? He doesn't.
Chase Utley- Yikes, looks like the wrong Phillie got paid.
Franklin Gutierrez- Who? Yup, who.
and 27 other batters. Does that mean Howard should be the 27th most paid position player in baseball and not the 2nd? And the Phillies better watch out in the offseason, because free-agent-to-be Jayson Werth is only two spots behind Howard on the list.
If we bring pitchers into the equation, Howard drops 15 spots lower in the rankings. Roy Halladay scores 7.3 to Howard's 4.9, again strengthening my argument that Howard is overpaid (at $25 Million a year to Halladay's $13).
And to think the Phillies wouldn't part with a few measly million bucks to keep Cliff Lee for an extra year!
Look, I love the big fella. But if he starts costing the team games because his massive contract eats up too much payroll, ala A-Rod with the Rangers, I'm sending the Phillies this blog post, which doubles as my GM resume.
Congratulations, Ryan Howard. You're a richer man.
First, let's give Ryan Howard his due. He is a prolific home run hitter who works hard every year to improve every facet of his game. He worked on his baserunning and can now swipe some bases. Training with Sam Perlozzo, he continues to improve his defense; he leads the league in fielding percentage at the moment (though he'll never win a gold glove with all the attention Pujols gets). Howard's trying to fix the holes in his strike zone- flailing at breaking balls away much less this year. He's cutting down on strikeouts. Kind of.
Howard also busted his hump to lose weight and keep it off. So many "naturally hefty" power hitters rest on their laurels, get fat, have to become designated hitters because they've eaten themselves out of playing the field, and shorten their playing careers because they fail to keep their bodies and skills sharp. It happened to Mo Vaughn, it's happening to David Ortiz, it's going to happen to Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval. It won't happen to Ryan. Thank you, Subway! (Ok, it might happen to Ryan. He's got a big frame. but Ryan is doing what he can to prevent it)
Ryan deals gamely with the infield shift defenses use against him that robs him of an awful lot of hits- a shift can't be put on a right-handed batter. I've yet to see him lose his temper in the billions of times he's hit a bullet into the teeth of the shift.
Ryan Howard has hit at least 40 home runs and driven in 130+ RBI's for four straight seasons. Only Babe Ruth has done that more times, and I think Ryan is going to overtake him. Yes, Ryan Howard has eye-popping home run and RBI totals, has won awards aplenty, and he's on pace to end up in the Hall of Fame. Jayson Stark notes that Howard hit 100, 150, and 200 home runs in fewer at bats than anybody, ever.
He also seems like a terrific person. My mom loves this guy. Ryan Howard isn't going to run over a homeless guy while driving drunk after groping a lady at a bar where he accidentally shot himself in the thigh. Not going to happen. He's got a fun personality, everybody in the clubhouse seems to like him, and he's a standup member of the community.
I am fond of Ryan Howard and I'm happy for him that he got paid.
Here comes the "but."
An average salary of $25 million is slightly more money than Ryan Howard should earn, and it could cost the Phillies the financial flexibility they need to keep their roster as talented as possible.
I even wonder if Howard could have commanded more had he gone into free agency. Unless the Yankees were in the bidding, I think it unlikely. Who were the Phillies bidding against? And you usually get some kind of deal when you extend a player's contract, trading dollars for job security. This ain't no discount.
Everyone is talking about how the Howard contract means that Jayson Werth is not going to be resigned. I think somebody is going to pay Werth more than he's worth regardless, but yeah, the Phils are going to miss out on some talent somewhere down the line.
My thought is that Howard deserves somewhere between $18-$21 million a year. Depending on how his option works out, I estimate him costing the Phillies $23-$39 million more than he's worth over the life of his contract.
I have no doubt that Albert Pujols is going to ask for, and get, more money than Howard. But Albert Pujols deserves more money than Howard. Howard's contract may cause Pujols' contract to get more inflated than it should be, but Pujols is the best hitter in baseball right now.
Howard is absolutely an elite talent. There are just some players that are better than him. A-Rod, who got overpaid in Yankee money, should earn more than Howard and he does. Derek Jeter should earn more money than Howard and he doesn't.
Howard should be making somewhere around Miguel Cabrera money, who averages $19 million a year. Joe Mauer should make a little more money than Howard- he calls a good game behind the plate, plays stellar defense, and is a better pure hitter than Howard- and Mauer just signed a deal worth $2 million less than Howard's annually. Prince Fielder deserves less than Howard, and we'll see how he does.
Think about this. Roy Halladay is averaging about $13 million a year. Is Ryan Howard worth $12 million a year more than Roy Halladay? Heck no. In fact, if I were basing my estimate of how much Howard is worth on Halladay's contract, I'd say Howard should earn $10 million a year.
Jayson Stark pointed out that nobody will have earned more than Ryan Howard after he's played 10 years: $190 million! Look, he's a great player- but that's waaaay more money than he should make.
The take home message is that the Phillies overpaid for Howard, and the Phillies could be in serious trouble if Ryan doesn't stay ultra productive through his 30's. It's great to think that he'll be a Phillie for a long time, and scary to think that his contract could hamstring the team.
Something that deserves mention here as well. Remember when we Philly fans used to complain about how cheap the Phillies are? Wasn't long ago. Well, we can't call the Phillies cheap now. We can only hope that they'll continue to open their wallet wide to overcome the hole they've dug themselves with this monster contract. We can only hope they'll have the cash to keep this fine team together and add complementary pieces.
Placido Polanco leads the National League in hits and runs, and is third in batting average. He's made some sweet plays in the field this week. Seems like the Phillies picked the right guy for the job. They certainly shouldn't hire me for their scouting department, because the players I suggested they take instead of Polanco aren't faring nearly as well as he: Adrian Beltre is batting 92 points lower than Placido and has driven in half the RBI's. Dan Uggla is playing an atrocious 2nd base. "The Pulse" DeRosa has a bum hammy. Pedro Feliz is batting .222.
My worry about Polanco's decline in batting average in recent seasons is quickly receding. Turns out he's a great fit for the lineup; Polanco is taking full advantage of the protection afforded him by the three swaggering sluggers at his back.
The Phillies have a bigger problem right now, and it's all their injuries. Blanton, Happ, Lidge, Romero and Rollins are all hurt right now. You can't expect the Phillies to score a zillion runs every game (they couldn't muster any runs today to support Cole Hamels' gem), and that's what they're gonna need to do if Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick keep getting rocked. Oh, by the way, those guys are definitely going to keep getting rocked.
Happ's injury status is a little murky; he'll throw a bullpen tomorrow and see how it goes (4/22 update- Happ goes on 15 day DL). Charlie hopes he'll only miss one start. Blanton is targeting the first week of May for his return, and Lights Out Lidge will likely join him. Romero was supposed to be back before Lidge, but now I hear there is no timetable for him to get to the big boy team.
So it looks like the Phils are going to need to go a few weeks on pitching fumes, and that will douse a hot start right quick.
As for Jimmy Rollins, who helped fuel the Phillies scoring explosion in the first week of the season, Stefania Bell, ESPN's injury expert, says that we can only hope to see him in four weeks. Calf injuries are tough for speed guys and infielders, and Rollins is both. Furthermore, rushing back from a calf strain can make the calf blow completely, ending a player's season.
Bottom line seems to be that the Phils might struggle through April and some of May without some key players. The division race is going to be that much tighter in September.
I get a little too excited about fantasy baseball. It's true.
Lucky for me, I only got around to hard thinking about the catchers. Er. I mean, I ranked the catchers as I felt they'd perform this season in fantasy baseball and then I ran out of time before the season started. So, no fantasy for me, but I wonder if I'll get my catchers right:
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Ryan Doumit
Kurt Suzuki
Matt Wieters
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Geovany Soto
AJ Pierzynski
Russell Martin
Chris Iannetta
Yadier Molina
Bengie Molina
Miguel Montero
All the other catchers are worth no more than a slimy avocado pit.
Note: I wrote this before Polanco started the season en fuego, currently 5 for 8 with a grand slam, double, 6 RBI, 4 runs scored, and a gritty hit-by-pitch.
That said, he just grounded into an inning-ending double play.
3/4/10
Chris Wheeler calls Placido Polanco “Polly.” No sir, I don’t like it. I prefer to call him “The Garish Grimace,” because of his penchant for bearing his exceptionally pearly ivories all 9 innings.
I’m not sure that I like Polly for the team much, either. My preference would have been Adrian Beltre, who signed a one-year $9 million deal with the Red Sox, with a mutual option of $5 million for a second year. Polly’s deal is $18 million for three years. It’s possible that Beltre wouldn’t have taken the same deal as Polly, but I would have offered it. As long as Beltre is recovered from his torn testicle, he provides better defense and more power than Polanco. He is also ostensibly 31 years old to Polanco’s 34.
Beltre would have been a clear upgrade from former Phillies 3B Pedro Feliz in terms of youth, batting average (lifetime .270 against lifetime .254), power (averages 5 more HR a year, and Beltre played in power-sapping Safeco Field for the past 5 years while Feliz played 2 years in Philadelphia’s launching pad), and speed(averages 8 more SB per year). Beltre fields his position just as superbly as Feliz. Beltre would also have slid nicely in the seventh position of the batting order behind lefty Ibanez, providing him with protection.
My only real worries with Beltre are his recovery from his nad-smacking and whether he is a positive influence in the locker room. He is a Scott Boras client, and anybody who signs with Boras is contractually obligated to wear blood diamonds, drink unfair trade coffee, and eat whale meat.
In going for Polanco over Beltre, the Phillies are getting a declining player with a batting average that has dropped from an excellent .341 in 2007 to a no-frills .285 in 2009. His strikeout total has increased for four straight years. While he won a gold glove at second base last year, Polanco hasn’t played a ton of third base, so it remains to be seen what kind of defense he can provide.
Now, I do believe Polanco can be an upgrade from Feliz, but I’m not sure he is as significant an improvement as Beltre would be. Even for a hitter in decline, Polanco’s batting average is astronomically better than that of Feliz. But little else about Polanco sticks out to me as a huge step up. Polanco is a little better on the basepaths than Feliz. He strikes out less*, but grounds into roughly the same amount of double plays.
I don’t hate the Polanco signing; I’m just not a big fan of it. I think there were other options at third base, I don’t know if batting Polanco 2nd works better than having Victorino there, and most importantly, I wish we would have asked Feliz to take less money (he said he would have) and used the extra bank to KEEP CLIFF LEE for an extra year so we could go into 2010 with a ridiculous rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ.
Bringing Feliz back for less wouldn’t make up the entire cost of keeping Lee, but would it have made the number more palatable for the Phillies? What would 2010 look like if we keep Lee instead of losing Feliz and gaining Polanco? Polanco should make the lineup more productive in 2010, but he may also cost the Phillies some games if he misses balls that Feliz would have gobbled up. Keeping Lee in the rotation, on the other hand, makes the rotation three aces deep for a team that scored tons of runs last year even with the ho-hum bat of Feliz. The Phillies win the NL East either way, but I think they’d be a better team with Lee and without Polanco.
Mark DeRosa, Mike Lowell, and Dan Uggla were the other options the Phillies could have pursued for 3rd base in 2010. DeRosa was a free agent who wound up getting 2 years and $12 million from the Giants. Lowell and Uggla would have required a trade.
University of Pennsylvania Wharton Business School graduate (!) Mark DeRosa has more pop than Polly, but he’s older (35), coming off wrist surgery, and is a career utilityman- so it’s hard to say how he’s going to do at the dish or in the field. He’s got a cool nickname stemming from his (now corrected) irregular heartbeat: “The Pulse.” He would have been a risky signing, but he would’ve been a threat coming out of the 7 hole in this lineup. Like I said, Polanco’s recent stats are similar to Shane Victorino’s, so I feel like having Shane bat 2nd and having a power threat like DeRosa bat 7th would be an overall improvement for this lineup. I’d rather have a homerun guy batting 7th; Shane’s talents for getting on base and stealing aren’t going to help him when he has Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher unable to drive him home. A power bat in the 7th position is more likely to drive home those in front of him, and it doesn’t matter if he’s quick on the basepaths if he’s going to be stranded.
Mike Lowell is kind of banged up; the Rangers pulled back on trading for him because he had some bum thumb. But when that guy is healthy he can pick it and rip it. If he could’ve been had on the cheap and the “keep Lee” scenario was in effect, I might take him.
Uggla was an intriguing possibility. His batting average is ca-ca, but he smashes homeruns. He’d provide more juice than DeRosa batting 7th, and he was the youngest of all the Phillies 3rd base options. The only problem with him is that he hasn’t played much 3rd base. If I knew that he could field the position, he’d be my number one choice. Can you imagine a Phillies lineup in which five players had a legitimate chance of hitting 30 or more homeruns? I’m a fan of the dingers.
At any rate, it’s Polanco now. And he’s making me look like an idiot 2 games in. Keep it coming.
*I don’t see why not striking out is considered such a big deal in and of itself. If you’re not striking out, but your other batting stats don’t impress, doesn’t that mean you’re making just as many outs as a whiffer who’s other batting stats are similar? I’d rather have somebody who strikes out and avoids a double play. If I’m seeing this wrong, please show me the light.
American League
East:
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox (wild card)
3) Tampa Bay Rays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Toronto Blue Jays
Central :
1) Minnesota Twins
2) Chicago White Sox
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Cleveland Indians
West:
1) California Angels in Anaheim
2) Seattle Mariners
3) Texas Rangers
4) Oakland Athletics
National League
East:
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Atlanta Braves (wild card)
3) Florida Marlins
4) New York Mets
5) Washington Nationals
Central:
1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Cincinnati Reds
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Houston Astros
6) Pittsburgh Pirates
West:
1) LA Dodgers
2) Colorado Rockies
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) San Diego Padres
World Series
Yankees over (sigh) Phillies
Awards
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Braves
AL Rookie of the Year: Wade Davis, Rays
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, Braves
AL Manager of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Mariners
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NL MVP: Chase Utley, Phillies
AL MVP: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
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