I told you so! All of you!

Let's flash back to July 2010. The floundering Phillies were looking to nab Roy Oswalt instead of Dan Haren, and I was not in favor of this. Here was one of my concerns about Oswalt:

"Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business."

Oswalt had a pretty good stint with the Phillies in 2010, and I had egg on my face. But it's 2011 now, 5 days from the end of the world, and it seems like the good people of Earth should trust my prophesy over what they hear on Family Radio. Why? Because my apocalyptic vision is coming to pass!

Back spasms chased Oswalt from a game on April 15th, and he hasn't been the same since. His velocity is down considerably, and everyone, from NL scouts to Carlos Ruiz, note that Oswalt's pitches lack movement. That is an ill portent for Oswalt's start in St. Louis tomorrow now that he's been activated from the DL.

I'm not saying that Oswalt is going to turn into a pumpkin. But we're paying him like a prince, and I don't think we can expect royal production from Roy anymore. I didn't read anything about him getting cortisone injected during this trip to the DL, but the more cortisone he gets pumped into his back, the worse the long term prognosis is for his vertebral column. Repeated cortisone injections help reduce inflammation, but they can weaken joints, cartilage, tendons, and ligaments. This makes re-injury very likely. What I said in 2010 holds even more truth today-the end of days is nigh for Oswalt's back.

I hope that he can recover enough to pitch well this season. He's gritted and gutted and ground out decent appearances so far. But I won't be shocked if he gets lit up tomorrow. And I will pray nightly both that the world doesn't end on the 21st, and that we don't sign Oswalt to a crippling, long term deal.

By the way, here's a comparison of Oswalt's and Dan Haren's numbers this year. Keep in mind that Haren pitches in the American League, and doesn't get a gimme out when the pitcher walks to the dish.

Haren: 4 wins, 2 losses, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.93 ERA.
Oswalt: 3 Wins, 1 loss, 21 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA.

Oswalt is good. Haren is tremendous. Haren has 2 years left on his contract at a somewhat reasonable price. And also has a structurally sound back. We could have had Haren for the same deal we made for Oswalt. I will never understand why the Phillies passed him up.

Phillies Tunes

Todd Zolecki posted a comprehensive list of every Phillie's walkup music. You can find it here.

Chooch's music is a little surprising: Black and Yellow by Wiz Khalifa. Maybe he thinks representing Pittsburgh when he walks up to the dish will inspire some Pennsylvania pride in the crowd.

Phillies Scouting Report, 4/3/11

I took in a game at the old ballpark today. Here's what I noticed:

1. Michael Bourn  I wasn't so sure about it at the time, but the Phillies did well swapping this guy for Brad Lidge. Bourn has some speedy gams, but he'll never be a reliable leadoff guy. You gots to hit or walk to get the chance to steal bases, and he doesn't do either of those things well enough.
2. Carlos Lee  He looks awful slow in the outfield. He should be a DH, but the Astros don't have any other options.
3. Jimmy Rollins  Jimmy is hitting seeds to start the season. Everything off his bat is a line drive, and that's exactly what I want to be seeing. And he made a crazy play at shortstop ranging far to shallow center field for a grounder and throwing an off-balance strike to first base. Curiously, he was running station-to-station on the bases today- what was up with that?
4. Ryan Howard  He's seeing the ball and hitting the ball. Hard. The shift stole a double off his bat today- he should've been 4-5.
5. Raul Ibanez  Raul is getting the bat on the ball, but his power is all dried up.
6. Charlie Manuel  Uncle Charlie took Roy Oswalt out of the game after only 88 pitches for a pinch hitter. The gamble worked and the Phils scored 2 that inning. Still, with the state of the bullpen and a three run lead, it was kind of a weird move. Oswalt had been pitching a fine game up to that point.

MLB Predictions 2011

Last year, my MLB season picks weren't spot on. I'll dissect the agony and the ecstasy of those 2010 ML picks at the end of this post.

First, however, because hope springs eternal, and spring springs once a year, and baseball springs also, it's time to debut my MLB Predictions for 2011.

American League
East 

1. Boston Red Sox    Best Team in baseball.
2. New York Yankees  A fine, if somewhat aged, lineup. Their rotation is a problem. And doesn't this have to be the year that Mariano Rivera jumps the shark?
3. Tampa Bay Rays  Sporting a new look lineup and a bullpen by committee.
4. Toronto Blue Jays   Could score metric tons of runs, but the rotation is a little green.
5. Baltimore Orioles   The Orioles are the slow-pitch softball team of MLB. I predict a lot of 13-12 games.

Central

1. Minnesota Twins   A dependable, well-rounded team. It seems like the Twins always have a steady farmhand on call if injury strikes.
2. Chicago White Sox (wild card winner)  The opposite of the Twins, the White Sox are like the dynamite on board the Black Rock in Lost. There's a lot of volatility on this team.
3. Detroit Tigers  I like their rotation, but this team will always be one Miguel Cabrera bender away from falling out of contention.
4. Cleveland Indians  The Indians are rebuilding, and aren't doing a good job of it.
5. Kansas City Royals  There are some exciting young players on this team. I guess they're finally starting to get the hang of picking first in the draft.

West

1. Texas Rangers   A murderer's row of hitting, a desolation row of pitching.
2. California Angels in Anaheim  A pleasant blend of hitting, defending, pitching, and coaching.
3. Oakland Athletics   No pop in this lineup, and I'm not buying the rotation hype. Anderson and Gonzalez are legit; Cahill and Braden aren't.
4. Seattle Mariners  A lot of things need to break right for the Mariners to top .500.

National League
East

1. Atlanta Braves  I hate to admit it, but the NL East reign of the Braves has begun.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)   Pitching won't be a problem, but a combination of injuries, age, and unwillingness to take pitches has unhinged this lineup.
3. Florida Marlins  The Marlins are a few years away from winning the World Series. And then auctioning off their roster to the highest bidder.
4. New York Mets  The Mets have gotten to the point of paying their overpriced talent to go home. Yikes.
5. Washington Nationals  If Steven Strasburg can come back from Tommy John surgery, this team has the talent to contend in a few years. For now, their starting pitcher is Livan Hernandez.

Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers  Pitching and pop, with Prince hungry for a new contract.
2. Cincinnati Reds  We'll see how this young team deals with success. Also, Dusty Baker has already made Johnny Cueto's arm fall off, it won't be long before he does in Edinson Volquez.
3. St. Louis Cardinals  Tony La Russa could very well overmanage this team to playoff contention, but I see a lot of borderline big league players here.
4. Chicago Cubs  An intriguing ballclub, but the Cubs always find a way to suck.
   
5. Huston Astros  Built by GM Ed Wade. Nuff said.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates  Grading them on a curve for recent futility, the Pirates have a pretty snappy lineup. Their rotation is a nightmare, though.

West

1. Colorado Rockies  Much as I hate purple, this team has talent all over its roster. It's going to feast on the atrocious West.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers  Forget Divorce Court, the McCourts ought to be tried at the Hague for crimes against humanity for what they did to a promising Dodgers team.
3. San Francisco Giants  The Giants have a nice rotation and a rag-tag collection of position players that through some cosmic kismet got hot last postseason. It won't happen again.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks Love the lineup. The arms are mediocre.
5. San Diego Padres  22nd in the majors in runs scored, 28th in batting average. No more Adrian Gonzalez. Think they'll get to 90 wins again? I say they'll be lucky to break 70.

World Series
Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves in six.

Awards
I'm picking two gimmies for MVP, so I'm going with two dark horses for Cy Young.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
AL MVP: Carl Crawford, Red Sox
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Tigers
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds
Al Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero, Yankees
NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies
AL Manager of the Year: Tito Francona, Boston Red Sox


Recapping Last Year's Picks

There's a fella who writes for Sports Illustrated, Cliff Corcoran, who writes a column called "Awards Watch" about the MLB season awards. You know, MVP, Cy Young, that kind of thing. Here's something he says in his latest column:

"Awards Watch lists the top candidates in each league for the award at hand, basing the rankings on who is most likely to win, not necessarily who is most deserving, though the latter is identified in the text when the inevitable fission occurs.
In my final regular season column of 2010, I predicted the top three finishers in each of the six races."

He says, in effect, that he picked the MLB regular season awards pretty accurately AFTER THE MLB REGULAR SEASON HAD CONCLUDED. This is like saying, "I put some fish in a barrel, and I was able to shoot most of them." At season's end, there are only a handful of likely candidates for each award, and there is almost always a prohibitive favorite.

We don't pad our stats here at Crying Eagles, Noble Turkeys, Red Glares. We call our shots at the beginning of the game, before Cliff Lee gets traded to the Rangers. And we take our lumps when God blesses the Giants with a World Series title because God loves Gay Marriage.

So, without further ado, here is how my 2010 Baseball picks shook out last season. The actual results are in bold, my picks are in parentheses.

American League

East
If the Red Sox hadn't filled a wing of Massachusetts General Hospital with their injured players, I think my AL East picks would've been more respectable.

1. Tampa Bay Rays (3)
2. New York Yankees (1) -Won Wild Card-
3. Boston Red Sox (2, wild card)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (5)
5. Baltimore Orioles (4)

Central
I know Middle America pretty well. They love me there.

1. Minnesota Twins (1)
2. Chicago White Sox (2)
3. Detroit Tigers (3)
4. Cleveland Indians (5)
5. Kansas City Royals (4)

West
Yikes. No excuses. Well, one excuse: I fell for the new look Mariners with all their pitching and defense. They turned out to be the old look Mariners.

1. Texas Rangers (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (4)
3. California Angels in Anaheim (1)
4. Seattle Mariners (2)

National League
East
On target. I'm a B-2 bomber, and the NL East is why the military budget is astronomical.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (1)
2. Atlanta Braves (2, wild card) -won wild card-
3. Florida Marlins (3)
4. New York Mets (4)
5. Washington Nationals (5)

Central
The youthful Reds coalesced and ruined what would've been a pretty solid prognostication on my part.

1. Cincinnati Reds (3)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (1)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (2)
4. Houston Astros (5)
5. Chicago Cubs (4)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (6)

West
Picking the NL West was, and is, like picking which one of my dog's turd logs to scoop off the sidewalk first. They all stink. Yes, I'm saying that the Giants stink.

1. San Francisco Giants (3)
2. San Diego Padres (5)
3. Colorado Rockies (2)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (4)

World Series:
The Yankees and Phillies nearly made it, but instead we had to suffer through the Giants and Rangers.
Giants over Rangers (Yankees over Phillies)

Awards
Mostly respectable misses for me here, except for picking Don Wakamatsu to win Manager of the Year. He got fired instead.

But check out my Cy Young picks! Pretty sharp shooting for your boy.
 
NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey, Giants (Jason Heyward, Braves)
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (Wade Davis, Rays)
NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black, Padres (Bobby Cox, Braves)
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire, Twins (Don Wakamatsu, Mariners)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies (ding! ding! ding!)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners (ding! ding! ding!)
NL MVP: Joey Votto, Reds (Chase Utley, Phillies)
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox)

 

Why the Phillies big bats are Phailing

Two good articles on ESPN about why the Phillies lineup isn't as potent as it used to be. Here and here. If you're not planning on reading them, the bottom line is that teams are refusing to throw fastballs at the Phightens. And since the Phillies are undisciplined hitters, they swing at whatever junk saunters plateward. The results are strikeouts and dribblers.

Ryan Howard is the Phillie who sees the fewest fastballs- only about 53% of the pitches he gets are fastballs. That's astonishing when you consider that the fastball is the most common pitch in baseball (I don't have a calculator in front of me, but I'd guess that an average players sees about 80-85% mustard). Ryan should really think about bunting down the unguarded third base line more often.

It's unclear how the Phillies are going to adapt to a league adapting to them. I can't see J-Roll or the Flyin Hawaiian suddenly learning patience at the dish. Utley is a smart hitter, but he's already battling injuries. And forget about Dominic Brown bringing an offensive spark. That guy was sent home from winter ball for his batting impotence, and he has been equally sucktastic in spring training- breaking an 0 for 16 hitless streak with a swing that ended up breaking his hand. Jeepers.

I think the only hope might be that the Phillies can swap Joe Blanton for a patient, every day bat. Preferably one who can hit from the right side. Here are the players I'd target in a trade:

Nick Swisher, Yankees: He can take over as an every day right fielder. Or left fielder. He's not a top-flight player, but he's proven to be patient at the plate, and has some pop. The Yankees could really use some pitching help, as well.

Chone Figgins, Mariners: He's overpaid and getting long in the tooth, but he'd be the best top-of-the-lineup option on the Phillies roster. He can steal AND draw a walk. The Phils could plug him into the outfield or deal Placido and let Chone handle the hot corner.

Daric Barton, Athletics: This is a little bit of a stretch. I'm not sure the A's would want to trade him, and I'm not sure he can play the outfield. He might be able to play third base (he played ONE game there in 2008). But he's just what the Phillies need offensively: check out this quote from his player profile at ESPN: "Statistically, nobody chased out of the strike zone less than Barton last year." Yes, he'd be another lefthanded bat, but he actually hits lefties better than righties.

In the news at this hour

While I bask in the glory of Roy Halladay's guaranteeing the Phillies the best record in the NL with a two-hit exclamation point, whereupon he also slammed the door on the Cy Young race (and locked it, set the alarm, pulled down the security gate, unleashed the guard dogs, and loaded his shotgun), I thought it would be a good time to clear my head of some other sports musings before I focus on the Phillies astonishing playoff run. And, you know, diversify my portfolio a little bit.

First, I have to offer my humble apologies for not believing the Phillies had this winning tear in them. When I lamented about the Phillies not signing Dan Haren and instead targeting Roy Oswalt, the Fightins appeared to be dead in the water after a historic outbreak of injuries and slumping sluggers. But Oswalt rejuvenated his career and, along with the Phillies other two aces, carried this Phillies team to it's best win total in many years. Even Placido Polanco, who I've been trashing since before the season, has been contributing to the squad by grinding out some quality playing time with a bum elbow that will need surgery after the season.

Nice work, Phillies. Like everybody else, I worry a little that this lineup will go cold during the playoffs, but I am officially in on another Red October.
------------------------------------------

Have you heard about what happened to Kassim Osgood, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver? Because it's nuts. Read the story for yourself, but here's how this guy spent a recent night in September:
1) Watched some TV at his girlfriend's house.
2) Got his TV viewing interrupted by a gun-wielding intruder wearing a plastic bag.
3) Had his head smashed by said intruder.
4) Was saved from further injury when his girlfriend, a Jag's cheerleader, got into a shootout with the assailant.
5) Jumped out a second-story window to escape.

He's ok, by the way, and so is his hero girlfriend. That's a keeper right there, ladies and gentlemen.
-----------------------------------------------

How about Alberto Contador, Tour de France prendre fait et cause pour? A lab found a banned substance, clenbuterol, in two samples of his urine taken while he was competing in Le Tour. The lab also found plastic residues that turn up when an athlete is blood-doping.

The sample, incidentally,was taken right before Contador had a monster day on the bike that all but sealed his victory. Hmm.

In his defense, Contador claims that the drug invaded his system via a contaminated steak and that the accusations of blood doping are a "science fiction story." Hmm.

Contador is suspended from racing right now, but has not been officially found guilty of a doping violation.

Here's what I have to say about this. The ICU bent over backwards time and time again to accuse Lance Armstrong of doing everything this side of attaching a 900cc motor to his bike to win past Tours, and has succeeded in casting a shadow over Lance's victories. They jumped all over Floyd Landis less than a week after his positive performance-enhancing drug test. Yet here we are, three months after the Tour, and they are still dragging their heels about stripping Contador of his title?

What gives? I'll tell you what gives. The European-based ICU despises American competitors, and loves a hometown hero. Très lame. Contador needs to be stripped of his Tour victories and banned for life.

On a final note, it seems impossible to win a Tour de France without cheating. Maybe they should move it to the Midwest.

Roy Halladay wins his 20th game

Say hello to Mr. Cy Young 2010, because Roy Halladay just won his 20th game. Halladay's 20 wins are best in the NL, his 213 strikeouts are also tops, his 2.53 ERA is third, and he has walked a mere 30 batters. His closest competition in the Cy Young race is Adam Wainwright, but I think Halladay's wins, paucity of walks, and strikeout total will put him over the top. With two starts- at most- left in the season, I think it's safe to say that Halladay is going to win the prize.

Let's just hope he has something left for the playoffs.

Horses and Phillies, live from Nana's house

This blog is coming to you live from Nana's house, from a computer that seems to be running a vintage '98 edition of internet explorer. Nana is partying down at the senior center, so I thought I'd throw out a quick blog update.

Roy Oswalt has indeed been traded to the Phillies. It's not as doom and gloom as I thought it would be, as Oswalt dropped his demand that the Phillies pick up his 2012 opion and Houston is paying $11 million of his salary for this year and next.

Though I still have many of the same concerns about Oswalt as I did in my last post, getting Oswalt for this year and next for $12 million represents good value for the Phillies. As long as Oswalt stays healthy, he'll be well worth that amount. The Phillies gave up JA Happ and some not-sure-thing prospects, and while losing Happ at his value-priced salary is a bit of a bummer, Oswalt is clearly the better pitcher, Keith Law has this to say about Happ:

"Happ is a fifth-starter type with good command and deception but fringy stuff without a real knockout pitch. He's a particularly bad fit for Houston's ballpark as a left-handed fly ball pitcher who has had some trouble with right-handed hitters. He's also coming off a forearm strain that has ruined his 2010 season. Other than that, he's everything you could ask for in a pitcher."

I pretty much echo those sentiments. I think Happ is a tough-minded pitcher who works very hard, but he's limited by his stuff. He would have to get by on guts and guile to become an elite pitcher, and that happens only rarely in the major leagues.

The Phillies are not in any shape to win it all this year, injuries and a world series hangover pretty much ensured that. But with Oswalt and the lineup waking up a bit, the Phillies do have the talent to challenge for a playoff spot. Next season looks bright as well, though I'd like the long term outlook a whole lot more if they'd have traded the same players for Dan Haren! Damn it!
By the way, Ed Wade has done his best work for the Phillies as GM of the Astros.

In horse racing news, the Haskell Stakes is this weekend. It's a tough field without any real longshots. Here are my quick picks:

1. Ice Box
2. First Dude
3. Lookin at Lucky
4. Trappe Shot
5. Uptowncharleybrown
6. Super Saver
7. Afleet Again
8. Our Dark Knight

I just recalled that I never wrote about how I did in the Belmont, so I'll recap those results when I do the Haskell finishes.

Phillies management look lost at the plate; Dan Haren signs with another red-and-white team

If you look back at my critique of the Phils' offseason moves, you can see that I've proven to know more than Phillies management when it comes to assembling a baseball team. I'll return to this subject in more detail in a future post, but here's a quick review of my knowing-better:

• The Phillies should have gone after Adrian Beltre instead of Placido Polanco.

• The Phillies should have kept Cliff Lee.

• The Phillies paid Ryan Howard more money than he's worth and more than he'd probably fetch on the open market.

Also, here are some things I would have written had I started this blog only a few months earlier:

• If the Phillies were going to make an ill-advised trade of Cliff Lee, they should have shopped him around and gotten more for him (You may think the trade was Roy Halladay for Cliff Lee, but it wasn't: The Phillies traded minor leaguers Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d'Arnaud to Toronto for Roy Halladay. They then traded Cliff Lee to the Mariners for some minor league scrubs who you will never see at Citizens Bank Park- Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Tyson Gillies.)

• The Phillies spent too much on, and gave too many years to Raul Ibanez.

• The Phillies should have matched the Astros' paltry one year offer to Brett Myers.

I'm not saying that the Phillies would win the World Series this year had they followed my advice, but I will say that the team would be in better shape right now and for years to come. Thus, I know more about assembling a good baseball team than Phillies management. The blunders by Phillies brass have had a trickle-down effect this season, and will for seasons to come.

Let's take the Polanco example. Polanco may be falling apart, and they've already invested in him for the next two years. Meanwhile, Beltre is batting .332 with 16 home runs with 63 RBI, and is slugging .547 (Polanco is hitting a respectable .316 but only has 6 jacks). Beltre is 4th in the league in batting average, 6th in hits, 7th in OPS, and has as many homers as A-Rod. And here's a trickle-down effect you won't find on the stat sheet: With Beltre on the Phillies, Shane Victorino would be batting 2nd, where he could go back to his comfort zone of slap hitting and stealing bases. Shane wouldn't be swinging for the fences as he thinks he needs to do now, and he'd probably be hitting closer to his career average of .280.

More trickle down: Raul Ibanez has been a classy and consistent baseball player throughout his career. But he is now 38 years old and you have to wonder how much chaw is left in his cheek. His current hot streak aside, he has been miserable at the plate this season and for the latter half of last season (he hit 12 home runs post-all star break 2009, but his batting average was .232). We're looking at an aging leftfielder who swings a declining left-handed bat in a left-handed lineup, and who plays a slow left field. The Phillies are on the books for 11.5 million next season for Raul, and even if they could find a sucker to take him in a trade, Raul has a full no-trade clause. The Phillies are stuck with Raul this year and next, and he's eating up payroll the Phillies could use on a better quality player (or players!).

More trickle down: Think the Phillies could use Brett Myers' 3.24 ERA in their starting rotation? Might his 6.68 strikeouts per nine innings be worth 3.1 million dollars? The Phillies didn't think so, but former Phillies GM and current Astros GM Ed Wade did. And, in case you don't remember this, Ed Wade is a moron. What does that say about current Philies management? The Phils wouldn't need to look for starting pitching right now if they'd have re-signed Brett Myers. They could focus their resources to other team needs.

But here's the trickiest trickle: After parting with Cliff Lee for nothing, and refusing to spare some chump change for Myers, the Phillies are now desperately searching for starting pitching. They halfheartedly tried to get Cliff Lee back, but his price had gone up (Seattle flipped him to Texas for more than they gave up in the Phils trade) and it's doubtful Phillies brass could have stood the embarrassment of admitting they should have kept Lee when all of Philadelphia had condemned them for letting him go in the first place.

After all this trickling, the Phillies are in a tight spot. Their playoff hopes are slim, and their world series chances are nil. Still, they seem to want to salvage this season (and be competitive in next season) by acquiring a starting pitcher that they wouldn't need if they listened to me (and all of Philadelphia).

To fill their pitching need, the Phillies braintrust zeroed in on two targets, one good (Dan Haren) and one that will only cause more trickling sadness (Roy Oswalt).

The good one got dealt today to a team in red and white, but it wasn't the Phillies.

No, The California Angels in Anaheim picked up Dan for a big bucket of nothing. According to Christopher Harris of ESPN, the prospects the Angels gave up for Haren "are not expected to be elite players," and the only major leaguer they included in the deal is "a lucky win artist." Keith Law calls said major league player "a mediocre, back-end starter"and the minor league prospects "three bodies." Are you telling me the Phillies couldn't have tried harder to get one of the top major league pitchers, a top-of-the-rotation-talent, a player who has 3 1/2 years left on his contract at a reasonable price (he'll make less than Ibanez this year, and slightly more thereafter), who is only 29 years old, who would have made the Phillies rotation dominant... and they didn't? What the hell, Phillies??? YOU SHOULD HAVE NABBED DAN HAREN, YOU IDIOTS!

**** Note, just after I wrote this, Dan Haren was smote by a line drive while pitching for the Angels and had to leave the game after pitching 4 2/3 innings and striking out 8(!) batters. That ball was my divine wrath, but I must say I wish it hit one of the bumbling fools who make decisions for the Philiies, instead.****

The Phillies will, sadly, focus their efforts on trading for Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is a good pitcher, don't get me wrong. But he isn't the answer for the Phillies, especially not like Haren could have been. Oswalt's ERA and strikeout rate are very good, but they are trending down from the elite level they peaked at from 2001-2006. He is not currently Dan Haren level, but Roy Oswalt is a good pitcher. The thing is, he isn't a good fit for the Phillies. Why? I present the trickling of Roy Oswalt, which will settle upon the Philadelphia Phillies if they trade for him-

• Roy Oswalt does not want to play in Philadelphia. He is an confirmed country boy and wants to live near his home in Weir, Mississippi. Oswalt has admitted that he'd rather be on one of his ranches than traveling from town to town with his current baseball team, which makes me question his dedication to baseball. If Oswalt is traded to Philadelphia, he'd be even farther from his coveted country real estate, and you have to wonder if living in a big city is going to affect Oswalt's already compromised focus. Unfocused pitchers ruin games.

• Roy has played on a lousy Astros team for too long, and he is habituated to losing. Losing attitudes are contagious.

• Roy demands that the Phillies pick up his 2012 option for $16 million. This, along with his $16 million pricetag for 2011 will further hamstring the Phillies payroll and make the team less competitive.

• Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business

• The Bleacher Report has a nice article about why the Phillies are better off keeping JA Happ and not trading for Oswalt; The Phillies have much more payroll flexibility if they keep JA Happ.

Dear Phillies, heed my call. Do not go after Oswalt. And appoint me GM before it's too late. Sheesh. How could you blow landing Dan Haren?!

Baseball Hyperbole As It Relates to Nat'l Tragedy (sort of)

You know what happened. If you don’t, and don’t care about the great American pastime, please fuck off. If you do care, but don’t know, watch this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8616789

Look, I don’t want to make a bad thing worse by harping on it, but this seems like madness. Armando Galarraga isn’t a great pitcher – he isn’t even a good pitcher on some nights – but he had his one moment of glory last night. And it was taken away from him by an awful call.

Does this mean Bud Selig better employ instant replay in the very next game? I don’t know. On the one hand, this seems like the perfect argument for such things. A decisive, easy-to-correct call that was tremendously important for the teams involved. But on the other hand… that won’t really help this situation, will it? I don’t see the powers-that-be granting Galarraga the perfect game after the fact. So who would this proposed instant-replay amendment help? The next guy to pitch a perfect game that gets robbed? Yeah, maybe. Whenever that happens again (actually, the way pitchers are hurling perfectos this year, it might be sooner than I think).

It just doesn’t feel like enough. Like slavery reparations given to people who were never treated like cattle.* In one way it feels like an insult to the people who actually did the suffering; in another, it feels like an empty, token gesture. Like not enough.

What it comes down to is how we grieve, I guess. Do you really grab hold of those bad feelings, almost relishing them, weeping and flailing in your Old Testament sackcloth and ashes? A real gnashing-the-teeth kind of sadness? Or do you go all 9/11 and indignant? Writing country-western songs about putting a boot in someone’s ass and turning a desert into a glass parking lot?**

For me, I can see both sides of this coin. The former seems wiser to me, the kind of grief that knows that even a call reversal wouldn’t help much. The moment is gone. And rules changes that make replay more prevalent might not ever help a situation like this.

But I also know how it feels to be wronged and want revenge. I’m the king of plotting the demise of people who’ve cut me off on the highway or stolen my beautiful, 52” television. My tweet/Facebook status immediately after the call: FUCK JIM JOYCE. I joined an FB group of a similar name, even, which I am now regretting as I write this.

In the end, though, it was great theater. It’s just too bad it had to come at the expense of a pitcher who will probably never come close to that again.

---

*Note: No, you can’t compare the two. Except that you kind of can. I’m not making light. I’m just noting a feeling of similarity I have in my gut.

**Note: Dear Lord, am I bombastic and full of hyperbole or what? It’s certainly ridiculous to compare the tragedy of 9/11 with a blown call in a goddamn baseball game. I’d never make that straight comparison. But the reactions to the latter seem, to me, like a microcosm (a smaller, infinitely less significant microcosm) of the former.

A fan's guide to interference

Luckily, when the Philadelphia copycat fan ran on the field two days ago and demolished Cole Hamels' focus, the effect wasn't Bartman-esque. Nobody's playoff dreams hinged on the game, and the Phils got the victory in extra innings anyway. However, for a city that claims to have a knowledgeable fanbase, the timing of the outfield jog was ill-conceived (and not just because another loose fan was tased on the previous night). That stunt could've cost the Phils the game.

Philadelphia fans need a refresher course on when it behooves the home team for a fan to interfere with the game. So, I present
A Fan's Guide to Interference.

1) When to run on the field. Just as we saw on Tuesday night's game, a break in the game's rhythm can throw a hot pitcher off. So, if CC Sabathia is mowing down Phillies like so many leaves of grass, it's a good time to take the express train to tase-heaven. Conversely, you NEVER run onto the field when a Phillies pitcher is dealing, especially when it's an easily perturbed hurler like Cole Hamels. Nincompoops.

2) When to battle a fielder for a foul ball. As soon as a fly ball breaks the plane of the spectator's side of the wall dividing the stands from the field, spectators are allowed to catch the ball. So, if A-Rod is trying to catch a Shane Victorino pop-up in foul territory, you should jump up and grab the ball as soon as it breaks that spectator-wall plane. Don't let that jerk push you out of the way; block him with your body and smack his glove (the smack might get you ejected, but it is ok to interfere with a player trying to catch the ball in your spectator space. Just remember not to assault him). If you let A-Rod catch that ball in your house, you just cost your team an out.

Beware, if you reach out and snatch the ball from A-Rod's clutches while it is still in the field of play, the umpire will call interference and award an out. And you'll probably get ejected. No point in that. Better to scream "Like a Virgin!" in A-Rod's face to break his concentration.

On the flip side of this, if A-Rod hits a pop-up in foul territory and Jimmy Rollins ranges over to the wall to catch it, lean back and let Jimmy do his thing. Don't mess with Jimmy or the ball in such a situation and give him room to reach out to make the catch. Catch him if he falls into the stands.

3) When to battle an outfielder for a deep ball at the outfield fence. The same spectator-side wall rules apply to the outfield fence that apply along the side of the field. As soon as the ball enters no-man's-land (the stands), a fan can swipe a ball, or knock it away, from an outfielder's glove. So if Chase Utley drives a ball deep and Jeff Francoeur tries to catch it over the wall, pluck your prize from the air and let Chase round the bags. But if Jayson Werth is trying to make a leaping catch over the wall, keep your hands on your cheesefries.

Interfering with a ball that isn't going to make it over the outfield fence or touching a ball before it clears the fence probably doesn't make sense now that umpires can use instant replay. Close calls are left up to an umpire's judgment, and he might rule contrary to a fan's intention. I think that if you're going to mess with a deep fly ball at the outfield wall, the best bet is to leave it alone until it reaches the spectator-wall plane.

4) When to lean over the rail and touch a ball in play. As soon as a fan reaches down and touches a ball in play, the umpire will call a dead ball and award whatever bases or outs he thinks would've occurred if not for the interference. The ump holds all the aces here, so there isn't much you can do.

There is virtually no reason to touch a ball hit by the Phillies that ends up kicking around the side of the field. The most likely effect will be that the umpire will award the Phillies fewer bases than they could've rounded without your help. The umpire is definitely not going to award bonus bases on account of your helping hand.

On a ball hit by the opposing team, grabbing a ball that rolls in front of the stands can theoretically be helpful, but it requires a fan of quick wits and a scout's knowledge of the other team. There are two scenarios in which it might make sense to grab a ball hit by the other team:

• The player on the opposing team is very fast and isn't close to 2nd base yet, and in your estimation the Phillies can't field the ball in time to prevent a triple. The hope is that the umpire will hold the runner at second base. If you're worried about screwing up, don't try it.
• There is already a runner at 1st base who hasn't reached 2nd base, and in your estimation that player is going to score before the Phillies can field the ball and throw home. The hope is that the umpire tells the lead runner to stay at 3rd base. A risky play for a fan that can get you reviled by the whole stadium.

5) When to throw objects. Come on, man. Never.

Halladay never folds em

Roy Halladay was throwing strikes, but home plate umpire Mike Everitt was too busy trying to hide his Albert Pujols boner to notice:
(from ESPN.com)
"St. Louis had the tying run up with two outs in the fifth after Albert Pujols walked on a close 3-2 pitch to load the bases. Halladay wasn't pleased with the call by plate umpire Mike Everitt. He didn't get another close one on a 2-2 pitch to the next batter, Matt Holliday. But Halladay fanned Holliday on a 79 mph curve to end the inning. On his way to the dugout, Halladay stopped for a brief conversation with Everitt."

The author there is being generous- those two pitches were more than close, they were about the strikey-est strikes ever. But even with the bases juiced, the calls not going his way, and slugger Matt Holliday bearing down on him, Halladay kept his poise and got out of the jam.

Two innings later, Charlie Manual came out to pull Halladay after Doc gave up a two RBI laser to Pujols. Halladay tells Charlie he has this, Charlie goes back into the dugout, the crowd goes nuts, Halladay gets a groundout to end the inning, and the crowd loses they minds.

Watching Halladay pitch is like watching Pedro in his prime- every pitch is a must-see, and you always trust that the guy is going to come up huge. Wow.

One injury note. Looks like Juan Castro re-twak his hamstring and is going to miss some time. Let's hope our third-string shortstop can get it done. Ruiz moved up a spot in the lineup to compensate and went a smoking 3-4 with a double and RBI. Choo-Choo!

King Cole shows up, Uncle Charlie leaves him in too long, Chooch saves the day!

Great win for the Phillies tonight over the 1st place Cardinals. Cole Hamels pitched a long-awaited stellar game, going pitch for pitch with Cardinal's ace Adam Wainwright. I thought that Charlie made a mistake leaving Hamels in to pitch the 9th inning. Hamels is a delicate flower mentally and physically, and he is struggling to regain his 2008 form. You don't leave him in if he's past 100 pitches right now; you don't want to wreck his confidence if he gives up a game because he's tiring. Take him out of the game, let him string together some good starts, and then you can ride him to victories later in the season.

Now, maybe Charlie is thinking he doesn't trust the bullpen in a game like this. I can see that. But I say ya don't trust Cole Hamels in a game like this, either.

At any rate, Cole does end up giving up the tying run in the 9th. It might have been because of the copycat fan who ran on the field while Cole was in mid-pitch, ruining his rhythm and concentration. Thanks, fat dude from the corner.

Still, out of adversity comes opportunity (Ben Franklin), and Lights Out Lidge comes in and hoses down the Cardinal's pants, which happened to be on fire. Setting up the unlikely hero of the night: Carlos Ruiz! Chooch hits a dinger in the 10th, running into the loving arms of his teammates. Good to see the rock of the team shine.

The Phils are going to need performances like this from their few remaining healthy players to stay in first place over the next few months. Because, bad news: J.A. Happ is going to be out until at least June, and Jimmy Rollins will likely be joining him on the shelf over that span. We can only hope Lidge, Blanton and Romero are healed up, and that Placido's elbow doesn't get worse.

Also, how bout that fan getting tasered at the game last night after running on the field? The video (below) shows that he wasn't trying to hurt anyone. I find the tasing a little excessive. You want my opinion, the fat officer who was chasing the young man ran out of breath and reached for the panic button.

It's our constant societal state of fear that gets foolish 17-year-olds tasered. This kid is clearly no terrorist, no outfielder assassin. But awful things have happened at sporting events and now this kind of good old-fashioned carrying-on has become a threat to national security. I hate it, but I kind of see the point in being careful.

Here's a video of the Phillies fan getting tased after he ran onto the field, shot by a fan and posted on youtube:

Stupefying double plays and chair kickers

 Here's the latest on the Phightin Philadelphia Phillies, while I nurse my Kentucky Derby shame:

1) Roy Halladay is Winston Wolfe. He solves problems.
2) Placido Polanco either doesn't like wearing an elbow pad, doesn't like that his elbow hurts, or doesn't want to prove me wrong about his aged ways.
3) In the craziest game of the season, Ryan Howard came up small with the bases loaded against the Giants this week. Jayson Werth didn't, clearing the sacks with two outs.
4) Ryan Madson kicked a chair and broke his toe. The Phillies now have an entire intensive care ward to themselves: Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Ryan Madson, and Jimmy Rollins are on the DL. J.C. Romero looks like he should still be on the DL. Placido Polanco looks like he wants to be on the DL. Carlos Ruiz looks like he doesn't want to be on the DL, but should be. Juan Castro probably shouldn't be on the DL, but has a sore ham. Brad Lidge is a tender shoot, just plucked from the DL. The Phillies are missing some key pieces.
5) The Phillies lineup woke up against the mets today; they'll go back to bed tomorrow against Johan.
**4/2 Update, no they won't.**

6) In a forgettable game, Chase Utley and Juan Castro sparked an unforgettable double play. It blew my mind in super slo-mo, here's it in regular-mo.

Let's hope for a new week empty of any demoralizing trips to the Turf Club.

And teach your children to stay away from the ponies.

Howard extension makes red sox salivate

A great article from NESN detailing how the Phillies extension of Ryan Howard has effectively priced most teams out of the market for Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder.

Hidden in the story is the tale of Ryan Howard's WAR, which is like his VORP, which is a nerd statistic that calculates a baseball player's value to his team. WAR stands for "wins above replacement," meaning that player X will win your team this many more games than an average player off the streets. WAR is a complicated formula, and I couldn't calculate it myself, but it supposedly accounts for every variable you can think of- like park size, lineup strength, chaw preference- and spits out how much of a difference-maker the player is in all phases of the game combined. It is a single statistic that tells you how good a player you have.

The thing to keep in mind about WAR is that it is a complete snapshot of how productive a player has been within a certain period of time. It can vary from year to year just like any statistic. If a player goes into a prolonged slump or misses half a season with injury, it will affect their WAR. So, if a player has an anomalous season, for instance if they take horse steroids or they break their pelvis, their WAR may fluctuate wildly from the year before. 

That said, if players are performing at a level consistent with their previous season, their WAR can make for some sound comparisons. This is where Ryan Howard, he of the $125 million contract, is exposed as not being worth that astronomical amount of cash. Gives some credence to the argument I posed in my last post.

According to the WAR stat, Ryan Howard wins his team fewer games than two players having normal (for them) seasons: Fielder and Gonzalez. Uh oh. But the WAR express doesn't stop there. Ryan Howard also had a lower WAR last season than:

1. Albert Pujols- as expected, because Pujols is a better player
2. Joe Mauer- this means that Howard should earn less than Mauer, right? He doesn't.
3. Chase Utley- Yikes, looks like the wrong Phillie got paid.
4. Franklin Gutierrez- Who? Yup, who.

and 27 other batters. Does that mean Howard should be the 27th most paid position player in baseball and not the 2nd? And the Phillies better watch out in the offseason, because free-agent-to-be Jayson Werth is only two spots behind Howard on the list.

If we bring pitchers into the equation, Howard drops 15 spots lower in the rankings. Roy Halladay scores 7.3 to Howard's 4.9, again strengthening my argument that Howard is overpaid (at $25 Million a year to Halladay's $13).

And to think the Phillies wouldn't part with a few measly million bucks to keep Cliff Lee for an extra year!

Look, I love the big fella. But if he starts costing the team games because his massive contract eats up too much payroll, ala A-Rod with the Rangers, I'm sending the Phillies this blog post, which doubles as my GM resume.

Ryan Howard makes a lot of money

Congratulations, Ryan Howard. You're a richer man.

First, let's give Ryan Howard his due. He is a prolific home run hitter who works hard every year to improve every facet of his game. He worked on his baserunning and can now swipe some bases. Training with Sam Perlozzo, he continues to improve his defense; he leads the league in fielding percentage at the moment (though he'll never win a gold glove with all the attention Pujols gets). Howard's trying to fix the holes in his strike zone- flailing at breaking balls away much less this year. He's cutting down on strikeouts. Kind of.

Howard also busted his hump to lose weight and keep it off. So many "naturally hefty" power hitters rest on their laurels, get fat, have to become designated hitters because they've eaten themselves out of playing the field, and shorten their playing careers because they fail to keep their bodies and skills sharp. It happened to Mo Vaughn, it's happening to David Ortiz, it's going to happen to Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval. It won't happen to Ryan. Thank you, Subway! (Ok, it might happen to Ryan. He's got a big frame. but Ryan is doing what he can to prevent it)

Ryan deals gamely with the infield shift defenses use against him that robs him of an awful lot of hits- a shift can't be put on a right-handed batter. I've yet to see him lose his temper in the billions of times he's hit a bullet into the teeth of the shift.

Ryan Howard has hit at least 40 home runs and driven in 130+ RBI's for four straight seasons. Only Babe Ruth has done that more times, and I think Ryan is going to overtake him. Yes, Ryan Howard has eye-popping home run and RBI totals, has won awards aplenty, and he's on pace to end up in the Hall of Fame. Jayson Stark notes that Howard hit 100, 150, and 200 home runs in fewer at bats than anybody, ever.

He also seems like a terrific person. My mom loves this guy. Ryan Howard isn't going to run over a homeless guy while driving drunk after groping a lady at a bar where he accidentally shot himself in the thigh. Not going to happen. He's got a fun personality, everybody in the clubhouse seems to like him, and he's a standup member of the community.

I am fond of Ryan Howard and I'm happy for him that he got paid.

Here comes the "but."

An average salary of $25 million is slightly more money than Ryan Howard should earn, and it could cost the Phillies the financial flexibility they need to keep their roster as talented as possible.

I even wonder if Howard could have commanded more had he gone into free agency. Unless the Yankees were in the bidding, I think it unlikely. Who were the Phillies bidding against? And you usually get some kind of deal when you extend a player's contract, trading dollars for job security. This ain't no discount.

Everyone is talking about how the Howard contract means that Jayson Werth is not going to be resigned. I think somebody is going to pay Werth more than he's worth regardless, but yeah, the Phils are going to miss out on some talent somewhere down the line.

My thought is that Howard deserves somewhere between $18-$21 million a year. Depending on how his option works out, I estimate him costing the Phillies $23-$39 million more than he's worth over the life of his contract.

I have no doubt that Albert Pujols is going to ask for, and get, more money than Howard. But Albert Pujols deserves more money than Howard. Howard's contract may cause Pujols' contract to get more inflated than it should be, but Pujols is the best hitter in baseball right now.

Howard is absolutely an elite talent. There are just some players that are better than him. A-Rod, who got overpaid in Yankee money, should earn more than Howard and he does. Derek Jeter should earn more money than Howard and he doesn't.

Howard should be making somewhere around Miguel Cabrera money, who averages $19 million a year. Joe Mauer should make a little more money than Howard- he calls a good game behind the plate, plays stellar defense, and is a better pure hitter than Howard- and Mauer just signed a deal worth $2 million less than Howard's annually. Prince Fielder deserves less than Howard, and we'll see how he does.

Think about this. Roy Halladay is averaging about $13 million a year. Is Ryan Howard worth $12 million a year more than Roy Halladay? Heck no. In fact, if I were basing my estimate of how much Howard is worth on Halladay's contract, I'd say Howard should earn $10 million a year.

Jayson Stark pointed out that nobody will have earned more than Ryan Howard after he's played 10 years: $190 million! Look, he's a great player- but that's waaaay more money than he should make.

The take home message is that the Phillies overpaid for Howard, and the Phillies could be in serious trouble if Ryan doesn't stay ultra productive through his 30's. It's great to think that he'll be a Phillie for a long time, and scary to think that his contract could hamstring the team.

Something that deserves mention here as well. Remember when we Philly fans used to complain about how cheap the Phillies are? Wasn't long ago. Well, we can't call the Phillies cheap now. We can only hope that they'll continue to open their wallet wide to overcome the hole they've dug themselves with this monster contract. We can only hope they'll have the cash to keep this fine team together and add complementary pieces.