I told you so! All of you!

Let's flash back to July 2010. The floundering Phillies were looking to nab Roy Oswalt instead of Dan Haren, and I was not in favor of this. Here was one of my concerns about Oswalt:

"Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business."

Oswalt had a pretty good stint with the Phillies in 2010, and I had egg on my face. But it's 2011 now, 5 days from the end of the world, and it seems like the good people of Earth should trust my prophesy over what they hear on Family Radio. Why? Because my apocalyptic vision is coming to pass!

Back spasms chased Oswalt from a game on April 15th, and he hasn't been the same since. His velocity is down considerably, and everyone, from NL scouts to Carlos Ruiz, note that Oswalt's pitches lack movement. That is an ill portent for Oswalt's start in St. Louis tomorrow now that he's been activated from the DL.

I'm not saying that Oswalt is going to turn into a pumpkin. But we're paying him like a prince, and I don't think we can expect royal production from Roy anymore. I didn't read anything about him getting cortisone injected during this trip to the DL, but the more cortisone he gets pumped into his back, the worse the long term prognosis is for his vertebral column. Repeated cortisone injections help reduce inflammation, but they can weaken joints, cartilage, tendons, and ligaments. This makes re-injury very likely. What I said in 2010 holds even more truth today-the end of days is nigh for Oswalt's back.

I hope that he can recover enough to pitch well this season. He's gritted and gutted and ground out decent appearances so far. But I won't be shocked if he gets lit up tomorrow. And I will pray nightly both that the world doesn't end on the 21st, and that we don't sign Oswalt to a crippling, long term deal.

By the way, here's a comparison of Oswalt's and Dan Haren's numbers this year. Keep in mind that Haren pitches in the American League, and doesn't get a gimme out when the pitcher walks to the dish.

Haren: 4 wins, 2 losses, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.93 ERA.
Oswalt: 3 Wins, 1 loss, 21 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA.

Oswalt is good. Haren is tremendous. Haren has 2 years left on his contract at a somewhat reasonable price. And also has a structurally sound back. We could have had Haren for the same deal we made for Oswalt. I will never understand why the Phillies passed him up.

I am always the most excited person I know when it comes to horse racing.

The first Saturday in May has come upon us quickly this year. I am just sitting down now to figure out my Kentucky Derby picks. With only 41 hours til post, do I have enough time to pour over bloodlines, sniff out the juiced equines, and figure the most malnourished jockeys? Coursin' I do.

It's going to be a crowded field with 20 horses making a go, and there aren't any sure thing winners here. Dialed In is the favorite coming out of post 8, but he only has 4 races under his flanks. Uncle Mo, the second choice at 9-2 odds, is recovering from a gastrointestinal virus and might not be able to race at all. ***5/6 Note: Uncle Mo is dropping out of the derby***** You might think that Calvin Borel, the jockey who has won 3 of the last 4 derbies, might bring some cachet to his horse Twice the Appeal, but that colt is a longshot at 30-1.

The entirety of speculation about this year's derby dandies comes laden with disclaimers like "it's a murky race of motley horses," “the field is wide open,” and “in an unpredictable cloud of mediocre, any horse can win.” All the mud in the divining pool has me scrambling for hard facts to fuel my Kentucky Derby prognosticating. Here's one. Did you know that the "time honored method" of choosing post position involves pulling numbered pills from a bottle? Crazy. And, with that fact, here are my picks for the 137 Kentucky Derby:

1. Mucho Macho Man (Post 13,  12-1 odds) Almost given up for dead when he was born and lay motionless for several minutes without a heartbeat, tended by a trainer who just recently returned to the barn after a heart transplant, Macho Man is a miracle horse.
2. Pants on Fire (Post 7, 30-1 odds) Kentucky's own Pants had a sweet workout in the mud earlier this week, and it looks like a sloppy track is in store for Saturday's contest. He's ridden by just the 6th woman jockey in derby history.
3. Dialed In (Post 8, 4-1) This hoss seems like the never say die type and has the best post position. But all I keep reading from the horses connections are excuses for how slow he is. Slow for a racehorse, that is.
4. Twice the Appeal (Post 3, 30-1) I don't bet against Calvin Borel in the slop at the Kentucky Derby. But I apparently don't bet with him, either. This horse is slower than Dialed In, but that might not matter in mud.
5. Archarcharch (Post 1, 10-1) Starting from post 1 is especially difficult in a crowded field of 19 horses. He’s reported to have had phenomenal training runs, so he’s got a good shot if he can get through the gates unscathed.
6. Soldat (Post 17, 20-1) Lady Luck tramped it up on poor Soldat; he's suffered through stumbling starts and rail runs alike in previous races. With the post next to him vacated by Uncle Mo, maybe he'll have some room to run. A real mudeater.
7. Brilliant Speed (Post 2, 30-1) A turf horse who has been training surprisingly well in the mud.
8. Shakleford (Post 14, 20-1 odds) He’s won on this track before. An energetic, speedy mount, Shakleford can take the roses if he doesn’t let Comma to the Top and Decisive Moment lure him into a front run early in the race.
9. Nehro (Post 19, 6-1) Runs with the eye of the tiger. Nehro appears to be in fine fiddle, but he hasn’t run much since arriving at Churchill Downs.
10. Animal Kingdom (Post 16, 20-1) This horse threw his rider last Wednesday and broke the rider’s nose. Animal Kingdom is wild indeed.
11. Midnight Interlude (Post 15, 12-1) The sharps keep deriding Interlude's previous races as being held at 5th rate tracks, as if he raced in the parking lot behind the Walmart in Tagg Flats before crashing Churchill Downs. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert must be slumming here. Interlude does not seem keen on the mud.
12. Santiva (Post 12, 30-1) Santiva is the JD Drew of horses. He’s got all the tools, but seems more than a little disinterested.
13. Master of Hounds (Post 11, 20-1) I love a dark horse from Ireland. Also, I love Metallica's 3rd album, Mater of Puppets.
14. Watch Me Go (Post 20, 50-1) Not a premier horse to begin with, Watch Me Go drew a tough post position and is a victim of musical saddles. A real workhorse, so he’ll sneak past some tired old mares.
15. Twinspired (Post 10, 30-1) Good Guy Mike Smith is riding a beast among beasts. But the big boys don’t often win, and Twinspired is a turf specialist to boot.
16. Decisive Moment (Post 5, 50-1) There will come a decisive moment in the race when this horse will have to choose between being a front runner and staying a front runner.
17. Stay Thirsty (Post 4, 30-1) Riding without blinkers this time. Riding dirty.
18. Comma to the Top (Post 6, 30-1) All indications are that this horse is a palooka. An opponent. He’ll run to the front of the pack early on, and then you’ll never hear his name again.
19. Derby Kitten (Post 9, 30-1) An Astroturf specialist, the muck is going to eat Kitten up.

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Superfecta Box: Mucho Macho Man, Soldat, Dialed In, Nehro

Worth including in Superfectas: Brilliant Speed, Twice the Appeal, Archarcharch, Shakleford

Upset Special: Brilliant Speed at 30-1 odds.

Five Best Names:

1.      Archarcharch

2.      Master of Hounds

3.      Midnight Interlude

4.      Uncle Mo (not racing)

5.      Pants on fire

Five Worst Names

1.      Derby Kitten

2.      Twinspired

3.      Stay Thirsty

4.      Comma to the Top

5.      Brilliant Speed