I told you so! All of you!

Let's flash back to July 2010. The floundering Phillies were looking to nab Roy Oswalt instead of Dan Haren, and I was not in favor of this. Here was one of my concerns about Oswalt:

"Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business."

Oswalt had a pretty good stint with the Phillies in 2010, and I had egg on my face. But it's 2011 now, 5 days from the end of the world, and it seems like the good people of Earth should trust my prophesy over what they hear on Family Radio. Why? Because my apocalyptic vision is coming to pass!

Back spasms chased Oswalt from a game on April 15th, and he hasn't been the same since. His velocity is down considerably, and everyone, from NL scouts to Carlos Ruiz, note that Oswalt's pitches lack movement. That is an ill portent for Oswalt's start in St. Louis tomorrow now that he's been activated from the DL.

I'm not saying that Oswalt is going to turn into a pumpkin. But we're paying him like a prince, and I don't think we can expect royal production from Roy anymore. I didn't read anything about him getting cortisone injected during this trip to the DL, but the more cortisone he gets pumped into his back, the worse the long term prognosis is for his vertebral column. Repeated cortisone injections help reduce inflammation, but they can weaken joints, cartilage, tendons, and ligaments. This makes re-injury very likely. What I said in 2010 holds even more truth today-the end of days is nigh for Oswalt's back.

I hope that he can recover enough to pitch well this season. He's gritted and gutted and ground out decent appearances so far. But I won't be shocked if he gets lit up tomorrow. And I will pray nightly both that the world doesn't end on the 21st, and that we don't sign Oswalt to a crippling, long term deal.

By the way, here's a comparison of Oswalt's and Dan Haren's numbers this year. Keep in mind that Haren pitches in the American League, and doesn't get a gimme out when the pitcher walks to the dish.

Haren: 4 wins, 2 losses, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.93 ERA.
Oswalt: 3 Wins, 1 loss, 21 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA.

Oswalt is good. Haren is tremendous. Haren has 2 years left on his contract at a somewhat reasonable price. And also has a structurally sound back. We could have had Haren for the same deal we made for Oswalt. I will never understand why the Phillies passed him up.