I told you so! All of you!

Let's flash back to July 2010. The floundering Phillies were looking to nab Roy Oswalt instead of Dan Haren, and I was not in favor of this. Here was one of my concerns about Oswalt:

"Roy has had recent health problems, most notably a bad disc in his back for which he has already received 3 cortisone injections. Investing $16 million a year in a pitcher with a time bomb in his back is bad business."

Oswalt had a pretty good stint with the Phillies in 2010, and I had egg on my face. But it's 2011 now, 5 days from the end of the world, and it seems like the good people of Earth should trust my prophesy over what they hear on Family Radio. Why? Because my apocalyptic vision is coming to pass!

Back spasms chased Oswalt from a game on April 15th, and he hasn't been the same since. His velocity is down considerably, and everyone, from NL scouts to Carlos Ruiz, note that Oswalt's pitches lack movement. That is an ill portent for Oswalt's start in St. Louis tomorrow now that he's been activated from the DL.

I'm not saying that Oswalt is going to turn into a pumpkin. But we're paying him like a prince, and I don't think we can expect royal production from Roy anymore. I didn't read anything about him getting cortisone injected during this trip to the DL, but the more cortisone he gets pumped into his back, the worse the long term prognosis is for his vertebral column. Repeated cortisone injections help reduce inflammation, but they can weaken joints, cartilage, tendons, and ligaments. This makes re-injury very likely. What I said in 2010 holds even more truth today-the end of days is nigh for Oswalt's back.

I hope that he can recover enough to pitch well this season. He's gritted and gutted and ground out decent appearances so far. But I won't be shocked if he gets lit up tomorrow. And I will pray nightly both that the world doesn't end on the 21st, and that we don't sign Oswalt to a crippling, long term deal.

By the way, here's a comparison of Oswalt's and Dan Haren's numbers this year. Keep in mind that Haren pitches in the American League, and doesn't get a gimme out when the pitcher walks to the dish.

Haren: 4 wins, 2 losses, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.93 ERA.
Oswalt: 3 Wins, 1 loss, 21 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA.

Oswalt is good. Haren is tremendous. Haren has 2 years left on his contract at a somewhat reasonable price. And also has a structurally sound back. We could have had Haren for the same deal we made for Oswalt. I will never understand why the Phillies passed him up.

Why the Phillies big bats are Phailing

Two good articles on ESPN about why the Phillies lineup isn't as potent as it used to be. Here and here. If you're not planning on reading them, the bottom line is that teams are refusing to throw fastballs at the Phightens. And since the Phillies are undisciplined hitters, they swing at whatever junk saunters plateward. The results are strikeouts and dribblers.

Ryan Howard is the Phillie who sees the fewest fastballs- only about 53% of the pitches he gets are fastballs. That's astonishing when you consider that the fastball is the most common pitch in baseball (I don't have a calculator in front of me, but I'd guess that an average players sees about 80-85% mustard). Ryan should really think about bunting down the unguarded third base line more often.

It's unclear how the Phillies are going to adapt to a league adapting to them. I can't see J-Roll or the Flyin Hawaiian suddenly learning patience at the dish. Utley is a smart hitter, but he's already battling injuries. And forget about Dominic Brown bringing an offensive spark. That guy was sent home from winter ball for his batting impotence, and he has been equally sucktastic in spring training- breaking an 0 for 16 hitless streak with a swing that ended up breaking his hand. Jeepers.

I think the only hope might be that the Phillies can swap Joe Blanton for a patient, every day bat. Preferably one who can hit from the right side. Here are the players I'd target in a trade:

Nick Swisher, Yankees: He can take over as an every day right fielder. Or left fielder. He's not a top-flight player, but he's proven to be patient at the plate, and has some pop. The Yankees could really use some pitching help, as well.

Chone Figgins, Mariners: He's overpaid and getting long in the tooth, but he'd be the best top-of-the-lineup option on the Phillies roster. He can steal AND draw a walk. The Phils could plug him into the outfield or deal Placido and let Chone handle the hot corner.

Daric Barton, Athletics: This is a little bit of a stretch. I'm not sure the A's would want to trade him, and I'm not sure he can play the outfield. He might be able to play third base (he played ONE game there in 2008). But he's just what the Phillies need offensively: check out this quote from his player profile at ESPN: "Statistically, nobody chased out of the strike zone less than Barton last year." Yes, he'd be another lefthanded bat, but he actually hits lefties better than righties.