Howard extension makes red sox salivate

A great article from NESN detailing how the Phillies extension of Ryan Howard has effectively priced most teams out of the market for Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder.

Hidden in the story is the tale of Ryan Howard's WAR, which is like his VORP, which is a nerd statistic that calculates a baseball player's value to his team. WAR stands for "wins above replacement," meaning that player X will win your team this many more games than an average player off the streets. WAR is a complicated formula, and I couldn't calculate it myself, but it supposedly accounts for every variable you can think of- like park size, lineup strength, chaw preference- and spits out how much of a difference-maker the player is in all phases of the game combined. It is a single statistic that tells you how good a player you have.

The thing to keep in mind about WAR is that it is a complete snapshot of how productive a player has been within a certain period of time. It can vary from year to year just like any statistic. If a player goes into a prolonged slump or misses half a season with injury, it will affect their WAR. So, if a player has an anomalous season, for instance if they take horse steroids or they break their pelvis, their WAR may fluctuate wildly from the year before. 

That said, if players are performing at a level consistent with their previous season, their WAR can make for some sound comparisons. This is where Ryan Howard, he of the $125 million contract, is exposed as not being worth that astronomical amount of cash. Gives some credence to the argument I posed in my last post.

According to the WAR stat, Ryan Howard wins his team fewer games than two players having normal (for them) seasons: Fielder and Gonzalez. Uh oh. But the WAR express doesn't stop there. Ryan Howard also had a lower WAR last season than:

1. Albert Pujols- as expected, because Pujols is a better player
2. Joe Mauer- this means that Howard should earn less than Mauer, right? He doesn't.
3. Chase Utley- Yikes, looks like the wrong Phillie got paid.
4. Franklin Gutierrez- Who? Yup, who.

and 27 other batters. Does that mean Howard should be the 27th most paid position player in baseball and not the 2nd? And the Phillies better watch out in the offseason, because free-agent-to-be Jayson Werth is only two spots behind Howard on the list.

If we bring pitchers into the equation, Howard drops 15 spots lower in the rankings. Roy Halladay scores 7.3 to Howard's 4.9, again strengthening my argument that Howard is overpaid (at $25 Million a year to Halladay's $13).

And to think the Phillies wouldn't part with a few measly million bucks to keep Cliff Lee for an extra year!

Look, I love the big fella. But if he starts costing the team games because his massive contract eats up too much payroll, ala A-Rod with the Rangers, I'm sending the Phillies this blog post, which doubles as my GM resume.