First, let's give Ryan Howard his due. He is a prolific home run hitter who works hard every year to improve every facet of his game. He worked on his baserunning and can now swipe some bases. Training with Sam Perlozzo, he continues to improve his defense; he leads the league in fielding percentage at the moment (though he'll never win a gold glove with all the attention Pujols gets). Howard's trying to fix the holes in his strike zone- flailing at breaking balls away much less this year. He's cutting down on strikeouts. Kind of.
Howard also busted his hump to lose weight and keep it off. So many "naturally hefty" power hitters rest on their laurels, get fat, have to become designated hitters because they've eaten themselves out of playing the field, and shorten their playing careers because they fail to keep their bodies and skills sharp. It happened to Mo Vaughn, it's happening to David Ortiz, it's going to happen to Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval. It won't happen to Ryan. Thank you, Subway! (Ok, it might happen to Ryan. He's got a big frame. but Ryan is doing what he can to prevent it)
Ryan deals gamely with the infield shift defenses use against him that robs him of an awful lot of hits- a shift can't be put on a right-handed batter. I've yet to see him lose his temper in the billions of times he's hit a bullet into the teeth of the shift.
Ryan Howard has hit at least 40 home runs and driven in 130+ RBI's for four straight seasons. Only Babe Ruth has done that more times, and I think Ryan is going to overtake him. Yes, Ryan Howard has eye-popping home run and RBI totals, has won awards aplenty, and he's on pace to end up in the Hall of Fame. Jayson Stark notes that Howard hit 100, 150, and 200 home runs in fewer at bats than anybody, ever.
He also seems like a terrific person. My mom loves this guy. Ryan Howard isn't going to run over a homeless guy while driving drunk after groping a lady at a bar where he accidentally shot himself in the thigh. Not going to happen. He's got a fun personality, everybody in the clubhouse seems to like him, and he's a standup member of the community.
I am fond of Ryan Howard and I'm happy for him that he got paid.
Here comes the "but."
An average salary of $25 million is slightly more money than Ryan Howard should earn, and it could cost the Phillies the financial flexibility they need to keep their roster as talented as possible.
I even wonder if Howard could have commanded more had he gone into free agency. Unless the Yankees were in the bidding, I think it unlikely. Who were the Phillies bidding against? And you usually get some kind of deal when you extend a player's contract, trading dollars for job security. This ain't no discount.
Everyone is talking about how the Howard contract means that Jayson Werth is not going to be resigned. I think somebody is going to pay Werth more than he's worth regardless, but yeah, the Phils are going to miss out on some talent somewhere down the line.
My thought is that Howard deserves somewhere between $18-$21 million a year. Depending on how his option works out, I estimate him costing the Phillies $23-$39 million more than he's worth over the life of his contract.
I have no doubt that Albert Pujols is going to ask for, and get, more money than Howard. But Albert Pujols deserves more money than Howard. Howard's contract may cause Pujols' contract to get more inflated than it should be, but Pujols is the best hitter in baseball right now.
Howard is absolutely an elite talent. There are just some players that are better than him. A-Rod, who got overpaid in Yankee money, should earn more than Howard and he does. Derek Jeter should earn more money than Howard and he doesn't.
Howard should be making somewhere around Miguel Cabrera money, who averages $19 million a year. Joe Mauer should make a little more money than Howard- he calls a good game behind the plate, plays stellar defense, and is a better pure hitter than Howard- and Mauer just signed a deal worth $2 million less than Howard's annually. Prince Fielder deserves less than Howard, and we'll see how he does.
Think about this. Roy Halladay is averaging about $13 million a year. Is Ryan Howard worth $12 million a year more than Roy Halladay? Heck no. In fact, if I were basing my estimate of how much Howard is worth on Halladay's contract, I'd say Howard should earn $10 million a year.
Jayson Stark pointed out that nobody will have earned more than Ryan Howard after he's played 10 years: $190 million! Look, he's a great player- but that's waaaay more money than he should make.
The take home message is that the Phillies overpaid for Howard, and the Phillies could be in serious trouble if Ryan doesn't stay ultra productive through his 30's. It's great to think that he'll be a Phillie for a long time, and scary to think that his contract could hamstring the team.
Something that deserves mention here as well. Remember when we Philly fans used to complain about how cheap the Phillies are? Wasn't long ago. Well, we can't call the Phillies cheap now. We can only hope that they'll continue to open their wallet wide to overcome the hole they've dug themselves with this monster contract. We can only hope they'll have the cash to keep this fine team together and add complementary pieces.
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